BRADENTON – Tomorrow's weather will have P.M. thunderstorms with a high of 89 and a 60 percent chance of rain. At least 25 people are killed by suicide blast during Friday prayers in a Pakistan mosque; Alabama, Georgia declare state of emergency after pipeline spill; the U.S. will pay $1.2 million to Italian family of drone strike victim; FBI Director James Comey says everyone should keep their laptop webcams covered; a petition is created to put 'Crocodile Hunter' Steve Irwin on Australian currency.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 11:13 AM EST WEDNESDAY SEPT. 16 2016
UPDATE...
15Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows a broad region of
weak mid/upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
Florida Peninsula. The weakness of the ridge is keeping the
overall suppression low, and the column overhead on the 12Z KTBW
sounding was quite moist. Dewpoint depressions through much of
the trop were small...and the PW value was over 2". The profile
did not suggest many negative factors toward deep convection, but
also did not indicate much potential for strong updraft leading to
intense convection. The other factor to note was the lack of winds
through the convective steering layers. Wind are almost
light/variable between 800-250mb. Convection that does develop
during the afternoon/early evening is not going to have much push
behind it, and therefore, slow movement and localized heavy
rainfall potential. However...what might limit the overall rain
total potential...is that very slow movement means rapid inflow
cuttoff and updraft dissipation once precip begins to fall.
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