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Race Analysis: Democratic Senate Primary

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The race to secure the Democratic nomination for this year’s U.S. Senate race has become a two-way race between two flawed candidates, which is disappointing, since the best candidate in the race has essentially been frozen out.

Congressman Patrick Murphy is a moderate, centrist Democrat who would probably still be a Republican in any other era (he switched to Democrat to run for Congress in 2012, narrowly beating incumbent Allen West in a redrawn district).

Murphy, 33, is the son of a wealthy construction magnate. He became a multimillionaire himself just after being elected to Congress at 27, via a stock gift from his father. Prior to running for office, he was a regular contributor to Republican candidates, including Mitt Romney.

The DNC sees Murphy as their best chance to keep the seat and has unabashedly backed him over Congressman Alan Grayson, a bombastic progressive who's rubbed many establishment Democrats the wrong way. Vice President Joe Biden even came to Florida to stump for Murphy, who every major Democrat from the President down has endorsed.

Grayson was elected to his central Florida seat in 2008 but lost it in 2010, during the Tea Party wave. He was reelected in 2014. Grayson is a progressive liberal who backed Bernie Sanders in this year's presidential primary. He is a successful attorney who gained notoriety in successfully going after Iraq War contractor fraud, winning a $13 million verdict against one firm. Grayson built up a fortune estimated at more than $30 million before going to Congress, then parlayed it into a successful hedge fund operation when he was unseated.

While in Congress, he supported the public option for health care and broke ranks to join Republican Congressman Ron Paul's "Audit the Fed" movement, which was favored by many progressive Democrats. He has been an outspoken critic of American imperialism abroad and has supported a variety of progressive environmental legislation.

Grayson does, however, come with a lot of baggage. The Office of Congressional Ethics recently recommended that the U.S. House Ethics Committee continue investigating Grayson's management of three hedge funds and other business interests that may have improperly overlapped with his duties as a member of Congress by using his name to market the products. Many of the investments also raised eyebrows, when accusations of profiting from decidedly non-progressive interests like mining operations accused of slave labor and other human rights abuses hit.

Grayson, who is currently on his third marriage, ran into another scandal recently, when one of his ex's accused him of having been physically abusive with her, leading Grayson to get into a heated verbal confrontation with a reporter who questioned him on the matter. Grayson’s blow up showed a side of him that wasn’t pretty and left many to question his judgment.

Miami labor attorney and U.S. Navy veteran Pam Keith was the first Democrat to enter the race but has not been able to overcome the institutional support and media favoritism being shown to the two sitting Congressmen, who have been engaged in an ugly, mudslinging fueled race. Murphy and Grayson have only agreed to one televised debate, which is scheduled to be held on August 12, but Keith will not be allowed to participate.

The vast majority of the polls have not included the former Navy Jag Corps officer, who would be the first black woman from Florida in the U.S. Senate if elected. Keith polled at 10 and 11 percent in two that have, beneath the 15 percent threshold being used for the debate.

Keith, who has never run for office, is blunt and articulate, demonstrating a remarkable ability to speak in great detail about specific policy issues. Her inclusion would give Democrats an attractive alternative in a race that few voters in the party seem completely happy about. However, if the powers that be continue to prevent voters from knowing she's in the race, that's unlikely to happen.

Analysis:

The choice between Murphy and Grayson comes down to the political leanings of Democratic voters, who either favor a moderate centrist or a progressive liberal. If neither candidate floats their boat, Pam Keith is a viable alternative who–assuming she would then get the support of her party–could give the Republican nominee fits in November.