The Probability and Effects of Sea-Level Rise

Sarasota County is in the process of studying the impacts of sea-level rise and is planning to produce a flooding vulnerability assessment for the county. ManaSota-88 recommends the following be included as part of the county’s assessment:

We are already experiencing the effects of the rise in sea levels. There is a lack of proper planning that will protect the public's safety in the event of hurricane disasters.

We urge the region's leaders to give more thought to the logic of increasing housing density without adequate hurricane shelters. Why are we increasing housing density without sufficient shelter space?

County commissioners should turn down any zoning changes that would increase housing density in flood-prone areas until sufficient protection for the public is available.

Without any consideration of sea level rise impacts, we know there are more people in flood-prone areas than there are shelters to protect them.

The sea is rising and will continue to rise, and our region (Manatee and Sarasota counties) has inadequate hurricane shelters and evacuation capabilities. The natural conclusion to these problems is to limit further development in flood-prone areas and to control new development until adequate hurricane shelters and evacuation plans exist.

Inadequate hurricane shelters and evacuation routes are a disaster waiting to happen when another major hurricane hits our area.

Beaches retreat when the sea rises. As sea rise continues, beaches that are currently only flooded by a significant storm event may remain underwater.

Ecosystems will get squeezed between a rising sea advancing and the development that will not stop.

The difference between man-made and natural beaches is due to sea level rise. Most of the beaches along the developed coastline are man-made beaches that have been "renourished" by sand dredged from offshore.

The mangrove wetlands and wetlands were generally protected by a law passed in the early 1970s. The very areas we were trying to protect, we are probably going to lose as sea levels rise. If sea level keeps rising, mangrove forests are going to die off — they cannot shift inland like they should because development is already there. The base of our food chain, which is why we protected these mangrove systems, may be lost.

Estuaries may also fail because of the predicted high water or rising sea level.

If you are in a high-velocity zone with crashing waves, a condominium probably isn't a safe place to be. In a major storm, there is a good chance five to ten feet of beach, or more, is lost. Scouring can occur underneath the structure, leading to its destruction.

When the county builds a new public structure of any significance, it should ensure there are appropriate core facilities in the structures to accommodate the needs of a hurricane shelter.

Comprehensive plans should be amended. The amendments should require an analysis to determine the current shortage of public hurricane space and project how much additional space is needed. To the full extent available by law, the county comprehensive plan should restrain the creation of additional demand on already inadequate, potentially nonexistent hurricane capacity.

Local governments should enforce and improve their concurrency standards regarding roads affected by storm events. There are going to be bottlenecks. However, provisions must be made to get people out of the major hurricane surge zones.

Impact fees on development in hurricane surge zones must be adopted.

State building codes should be strengthened to ensure that construction codes meet the highest hurricane safety standards possible.

Notice should be required to advise potential buyers of property in coastal high-hazard areas of the availability and costs of flood and wind insurance, erosion problems, and other problems they may experience.

Glenn Compton is the Chairman of ManaSota 88, a non-profit organization that has spent over 30 years fighting to protect the environment of Manatee and Sarasota counties.