An Early Look at the 2016 Presidential Field: Part 1: Republicans

The 2016 Presidential election is still 23 months away but at some of the most consequential levels, it's already begun. Here's a look at some potential candidates and what they bring to the table.

Jeb Bush: Bush is far and away the biggest name in the field and has the tightest lock on traditional Republican donor channels. Like Hillary Clinton with Democrats, if he's in the race (or even thinking about entering), Bush makes it very hard for other contenders to get the deep pockets on their side.

The 2012 nomination seemed his for the taking, but conventional wisdom said that Bush would wait until there was an open election, rather than run against a well-resourced incumbent. Bush is 61, so this is really the last cycle in which age would not be a factor. If he's going to mount a run, this would be the year to do it and all indications are that he will throw his hat into the ring.

The former Florida Governor's biggest challenge might be surviving his own party's base in securing the nomination – or surviving it without hamstringing himself going into a general election a la Mitt Romney in 2012.

His moderate positions on immigration along with the fact that he is one of the architects of the Common Core education platform often causes those on the far right to see red. Remember, Bush is a prototypical neo-conservative, the wing of the party that dominated from the late '90s to 2010, when the Tea Party rose up against them.

Were he to get the nomination, and at this point I think he will, he has a moderate enough platform to appeal to many Americans in the middle. He's also a gifted orator with a calm and measured demeanor who is difficult to rattle with attacks. Add in the fact that he can raise so much campaign cash and he certainly looks like the party's strongest candidate in a general election.

Chris Christie: By the time he was giving the keynote address at the 2012 GOP convention, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was considered a shoe-in for 2016. In fact, many influential Republicans had begged him to run in 2012.

Getting his state through Hurricane Sandy burnished his reputation as a forceful, hands-on leader who wasn't afraid to roll up his sleeves. Then came Bridgegate and it seemed that his dreams of higher office were over. A year later, it's harder to tell.

As head of the Republican Governors Association, Christie made the rounds for Republicans in 2014 and was well received by the party's base. He's more moderate than many popular Republicans, but is still adored by most of the base. Christie would probably present Bush with the biggest challenge in a primary contest.

Paul Ryan: The party's 2012 VP nominee is a favorite of the young Republican crowd and though he's young enough to sit out a cycle or two, cashing in on the name recognition gained the last time out would certainly seem to be his best path to the nomination.

Ryan is hailed as a policy expert, though most of his plans have appeared flimsy under attack, and he has a well-earned reputation of flying fast and loose with the facts. Next to a candidate like Bush, Ryan's wonkiness quickly pales.

He's far enough to the right to have an easier go with the party's base, but didn't do a lot to bolster Romney's ticket when he was added to the bottom half – a selection that was largely seen as a move to appease the base, who should have been more interested in a running mate who would have brought greater appeal in the middle.

Ryan has the brand and fundraising ability to be in the mix and should Bush decide not to run for some reason, he could be a contender. I just don't see many Republicans getting excited about Ryan if Jeb is in the field.

Rand Paul: The Senator from Kentucky seems all but certain to make a run and if he inherits his father's legion of Libertarians while maintaining his Tea Party base, Paul could be a factor, if not a true contender.

Senator Paul appeals to a sizable lot of low-tax Republicans with a bit of an isolationist foreign policy ideology. Both he and his father questioned the expansive military ambitions and aggressive intervention policies of the neo-cons, and I'd expect him to differentiate himself from Bush both here and with federal control of education.

Paul's biggest contribution to the field might be his willingness to buck the party line and take debates into uncomfortable territory for his opponents. I don't think he can secure the nomination or win the White House, but I think he's good for the field and will help make for a more honest process.

Dr. Benjamin Carson: Carson has performed well in polls and looks poised to make a run. However, a look at the pediatric brain surgeon's platform reveals a pretty thin policy agenda filled with a lot of back of the napkin sort of ideas that call to mind Steve Forbes. There's very little that is innovative or interesting.

Nonetheless, there is always a market in Republican politics for a wealthy African-American who will tell the rest of his race that their challenges are mostly their own fault. Carson is nothing more than this cycle's Herman Cain with the added attraction that he's a black doctor who will rail against Obamacare.

At the end of the day, there are plenty of Republicans who like to hear a wealthy man go on and on about how hard it is for the rich and successful in modern America. It's just not a message that is likely to appeal to the non rich and successful who increasingly make up a larger percentage of the electorate.

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At this stage, I think it's a Bush-Christie race no matter how crowded the field gets. I don't think Marco Rubio, Rick Perry or Mike Huckabee will have much of an impact should they decide to join the mix. If I had to make an early prediction, I'd bet that Bush gets the nomination and then selects Ohio Senator Rob Portman as his running mate, while Christie and Ryan would be front runners for cabinet posts.

Tune in Sunday for a look at the likely 2016 field of Democratic candidates.

Dennis Maley's column appears every Thursday and Sunday in The Bradenton Times. He can be reached at dennis.maley@thebradentontimes.com. Click here to visit his column archive. Click here to go to his bio page. You can also follow Dennis on Facebook.