Bush's Campaign Begins to Buckle

BRADENTON – Jeb Bush entered the race to secure the 2016 Republican Presidential nomination with every advantage a candidate could hope for–$100 million in super PAC donations, the support of the party establishment and a strong lead in name recognition among a crowded field of contenders. Now, four months and two debates since making his official announcement, Bush isn’t even the most popular candidate from Florida. What happened?

Bush’s polling among likely Republican voters has dropped from a high of 25 percent in April of this year to a low of 7 percent in the most recent polls. This comes after his official campaign spent more than $11 million in the last three months, while his super PAC, Right to Rise, dropped an unthinkable $24 million on ad buys in September alone. It doesn’t seem like any amount of money can keep the candidate from dropping in the polls, let alone help him climb back toward contention.

Bush’s inability to connect with voters has also started to impact his ability to raise campaign funds, as evidenced by his filing of $13.4 million for the third quarter, which was about $10 million less than campaign strategists said he needed to raise in order to maintain a strong push. Bush’s summer fundraising lagged far behind former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, a political novice who nonetheless managed to raise $20.8 million during the same period. Meanwhile, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders managed to raise $28 million and $26 million respectively.

Photo by Michael Vandon via Wikimedia Creative Commons

Bush did manage to raise more money over the summer than fellow Florida candidate Marco Rubio, nearly twice as much in fact. However, Rubio now leads Bush in Florida, where the former governor’s numbers have dropped to single digits for the first time in his campaign. In the most recent poll of Florida voters, Bush trails Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Marco Rubio with only 9 percent support among Republican voters in the state he governed for eight years. In the Real Clear Politics average of national polls, Bush trails not only those three candidates but also Texas Senator Ted Cruz, holding just a 7 percent average nationally.

Bush’s disappointing third quarter fundraising totals suggest that potential supporters are wary of throwing good money after bad, while better than expected figures for candidates like Cruz ($12.2 million) suggest that those who are looking beyond frontrunners Trump and Carson are looking elsewhere. Thus, it’s hard to describe Bush as anything other than a lower second-tier candidate at this stage. The rate at which he’s burning through campaign cash–he has less on hand than Rubio, Cruz or Carson–also raises red flags in terms of his long-term prospects to stay in the race.

Still, there are some pundits and campaign veterans who are defending Bush’s chances, arguing that Trump and Carson–who command almost 50 percent of support among the 14-candidate field in national polls–are destined to flameout by the time voters weigh in. That theory suggests that voters will pivot back toward an establishment candidate at the ballot box. However, we’re now in the final three and a half months before the Iowa Caucus and there’s little evidence of that happening, despite two debates and multiple campaign faux paus by both candidates.

Moreover, there’s even less evidence that Bush would be the candidate voters would return to if they abandoned both Trump and Carson, considering that Rubio, Cruz, and even former HP CEO Carly Fiorina lead Bush in both Iowa and New Hampshire, despite much time and money spent campaigning in those states.

A lot of things have to go wrong for a lot of candidates before one could envision Jeb Bush getting the nomination. If that continues to become more clear over the next month or so, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to secure enough fundraising dollars to keep campaigning in a meaningful manner, as the campaign has already slashed staff salaries and cut other costs. Jeb Bush might not yet be finished in the race, but it's clearly do or die time. He'll have his next chance to move the needle at the October 28 GOP debate on CNBC.