City Council Must be Cautious in Developing Final Portion of the Sandpile

The proposed River Song modification that will be pitched at tomorrow's Bradenton City Council meeting raises some interesting questions about the future of downtown Bradenton and the conceptual plan for the riverfront revitalization. Unfortunately, it seems as though action will be taken in its usual haste, long before enough of that conversation transpires.

River Song developers are asking to scrap the retail element that was to exist on the first floor of what were once planned to be condos, but have been understandably reimagined as apartments in today's real estate market. The reason for the request is quite simple: there is currently zero interest in retail space in that area. Developers argue that since it is largely the poor demographics at the root of this lack of demand, adding the apartments would change that. If only it were that simple.

The concerns are quite obvious. We're talking about pretty much the final portion of the entire downtown waterfront that remains undeveloped, and what would seem to be the last opportunity for a meaningful retail build out. If the demographics improve, where will the new retail go? The thinking is that they'll make Old Main Street and other spots west of 41 more attractive, but I think we should be very careful about sealing off the portion of the waterfront east of 9th Street West as a residential hub.

The plans for that area, often referred to as the Sandpile, have changed drastically over the years, but have always called for a significant amount of retail space on the river. If the current economy does not support that vision, we should remain open to the idea of preserving the remaining space until it does. There is no evidence that simply building apartments that will reportedly rent for $900 – $1,500 a month will cause people to move into an area without all of the things that were supposed to draw them there in the first place.

Obviously it's a chicken or the egg paradox, but you've already got an apartment complex similar to the one they're describing in 210 Watermark, and it is not as though there is a waiting list to get in. There are also many rental opportunities at the nearby condos which still have many unsold units. How much of a market are we imagining exists for apartments at that price level? The average individual income in Manatee County is under $30,000. The demographic of young professionals that the retailers seek can barely afford the rental rate at luxury apartments further from the downtown that go for around 20-30 percent less and already do have the shopping and restaurants close by that the city is hoping to lure.

If there was an apartment complex along the river with a Starbucks, an Apple store and a couple of other trendy retailers lining the first floor street, then maybe you could make a better case to sell such renters on downtown life. I understand that it's the lack of such people that are keeping them away, but there's your dilemma and the reason why holding out might be a more prudent path at this point in time.

If the plan unfolds as proposed, the still to be funded and completed Manatee Players would be the only real destination on the Sandpile and the Marriott would remain the furthest location from downtown, without the waterfront shopping along the way that was supposed to connect it. For the most part, the Sandpile will be naturally cut off from the Old Main area by 41, as most downtowners will have little or no reason to cross the street. That changes the synergy of what has always been envisioned in a drastic way and places a big bet on residents flocking to the area – a bet that could result in a tremendous glut of empty units that would likely end up becoming affordable housing over time, which is not what the very expensive riverfront revitalization is seeking to achieve.

An upscale apartment complex might still ultimately be in the cards. Who knows if the condo market will ever fully recover, and the anxieties caused by massive losses in the recent past might make apartments a much more popular option for would-be condo dwellers that do not want the risk associated with ownership – or for young professionals who are leery about owning in a very transient job market that is likely to require frequent relocation. It also remains to be seen what impact the soon to be made riverfront improvements will have on the downtown economy, and perhaps we should wait and see how the rest of the riverfront shakes out before we limit our options on this key piece of undeveloped riverfront.

Editor's update: This article was published on Tuesday, June 7. On June 8, the Bradenton City Council voted against the proposal. Click here for the full story.

Dennis Maley is a featured columnist and editor for The Bradenton Times. An archive of his columns is available here. He can be reached at dennis.maley@thebradentontimes.com.