Deep Thoughts on Tuesday's Local Election Results

Tuesday's local elections focused primarily on two races. All three of our state legislators got walkovers and our local Congressional contest was over before it started. Aside from a few of city races that all went according to conventional wisdom, the collective interest was focused on races for the county commission and school board, where Carol Whitmore routed Terri Wonder and Mary Cantrell beat Julie Aranibar.

Despite more pre-election excitement than any countywide Dem-Rep race has provided in recent years, Republican incumbent At-large County Commissioner Carol Whitmore easily fended off a game challenger in Democrat Terri Wonder.

This was a race that captured a lot of imaginations. Could a candidate as strong as Wonder overcome the seemingly impossible task of winning a countywide race in Manatee with a "D" next to her name?

There are 33 percent more Republicans in Manatee County than Democrats, and they tend to turn out in much higher numbers, a factor that has been especially pronounced in non-presidential years.

True, there are a record 54,976 independent or third party-registered voters in Manatee these days, which is nearly a quarter of the total count. It's easy to start imagining ways in which that large Republican lead could be nullified – only no one has been able to bring such a strategy to fruition.

Wonder certainly did everything she possibly could, and if there was going to be a Manatee miracle, she seemed to be the one destined to pull it off. A highly intellectual and articulate PhD research scientist, who served as a decorated U.S. Military Civilian in Iraq, Wonder campaigned for over a year and wore out several pairs of shoes beating the sidewalks. She showed up at everything and proved herself to be the rare first-time candidate who was not apprehensive in engaging the crowd.

In debates, Wonder more than held her own and she was helped along by a candidate who brought more than a little baggage to the race and was also willing to engage Wonder, even though she really didn't have to and often did so to her own peril.

By Election Day, I was still standing by my prediction of a 9-point Whitmore victory, though I was conceding to those who thought Wonder could pull it off, that it wouldn't be the most shocking thing I've ever seen in politics. 

"I just don't see the buzz out there for Whitmore," one prominent Republican told me. "It feels like this thing could go the other way."

I'll admit, I had talked to many Republicans who said they were, or already had voted for Wonder, and Democrats seemed more organized and enthusiastic than they have been for a countywide race since I've lived in Manatee County (though that's not saying much). However, political pundits are painfully cognizant of something we call the bubble effect, or the tendency of those down here in the trenches of the muckety-muck to forget what the world looks like from above – where it's much more crowded.

When it comes to local politics, there is a relatively small group of true believers and trough feeders on both sides of the aisle who dominate the genuine interest. They watch the debates, they read the articles, and sometimes they even go to hear the candidates speak.

When you put all of them in one room, it seems they make for a sizable group. Then when you add up all of those various rooms in your mind – the REC, the DEC, the various east county, island and other sub-clubs, Mixon's for a Tea Party meeting, the chamber, Tiger Bay, activist-heavy enclaves like Tara and Cortez, League of Women Voters events, and even the Convention Center for Long Bar Pointe –  you can start to see the body politic of Manatee County as a rather formidable entity.

 
Unfortunately, you're wrong. When all is said and done, we're talking far less than 10,000 people using even the most generous estimates and not accounting for the considerable overlap between all of those groups. In Tuesday's district 6 county commission race, more than 114,000 people voted.

 
As someone quite familiar with such data, I'd bet dollars to donuts that at the very least, 90,000 knew next to nothing about either candidate. They saw signs, maybe got a piece of direct mail or a robo-call and they cast a vote that in all likelihood had more to do with the letters D and R than either candidate or any issue. They showed up to vote for Scott or Crist – mostly as low information voters even for the top ballot race – and then they kept ticking off races further down the ballot.

At the end of the day, Whitmore ran a hundred thousand dollar campaign while Wonder had to try and convince Republicans to jump ship, or non-voting Democrats to turn out, for the bargain basement price of 20 cents on the dollar. That wasn't nearly enough.

What did one year of campaigning, a strong platform that resonated with voters that she was able to connect with and 22 grand worth of signs and robo-calls get her? At the very most, 14,620 votes.

That's how many more votes Wonder had on Tuesday than Whitmore's 2010 Democratic opponent Sundae Knight. In 2010, Whitmore got 70,075 votes, just 2,000 more than she got this year. Knight, who was essentially outspent by Wonder's modest 2014 bid by the same 5-1 margin Whitmore had bested Wonder by, had no real campaign infrastructure to speak of, and was seen as a straw candidate but still managed a little over 31,000 votes or 30 percent of the total vote.

 
Considering how little campaigning Knight was able to do, along with the fact that she wasn't a particularly strong candidate (nor did Whitmore have as much baggage going into that race) and that 2010 was the year of a giant Republican Tea Party wave, it's safe to assume that that's about the range that a Democrat is all but guaranteed in such a race from the straight-ticket effect alone.

2014 saw better Democratic turnout, but even that, combined with Whitmore's problems and Wonder's additional money and stronger candidacy, was only enough to cut the gap in half. The message that should send to Manatee Democrats is not that it is impossible to win a countywide race in Manatee, but that it will take about twice as much as Terri Wonder had this year to make a go of it.

Raise at least 50 grand for your candidate and double your GOTV success. Easier said than done, considering that special interest money – aka the real money – isn't going to be lining up to fork over dough for one minority vote that will likely fall on the other side of their issues. 

Still, Democratic candidates will tell you in confidence that securing meaningful donations from even the wealthiest and most politically active Manatee Dems can be as easy as pulling teeth on an unanesthetized rhinoceros. In fact, I've had more than one local Dem-to-Rep convert tell me that it's the very reason they jumped parties. 

In both Sarasota and Manatee counties, deep-pocketed liberals have long been much more willing to stroke a big check for a Barack or Hillary (especially if it includes a handshake and a photo op) than to really get behind a local grass-rooter who they often see as fighting a doomed battle.

 
That sort of mentality has created a self-fulfilling prophecy that the party must conquer if it is to build any sort of local relevance. Had they shown half as much giddy-up for Wonder as I expect they'll pour on Hillary two years from now, things may have gone differently. 

 
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In the non-partisan school board race, where both candidates were known Republicans, the bigger campaign account did not prevail. Despite spearheading efforts to totally revamp a financially devastated, ethically bankrupt and administratively compromised district, Julie Aranibar is out after just one term.

Aranibar went from maverick outsider and hair shirt on former Superintendent Tim McGonegal, to being perceived as an establishment insider, in just the blink of an eye. On Tuesday, it seemed as if several elements beyond her control conspired against the spitfire first-time pol, who helped bring to light tens of millions of dollars in financial malfeasance at the district.

On the one hand, Aranibar seemed to suffer the backlash of public frustration toward a board that has become so mired down in political bickering that it has been routinely described as "dysfunctional." On the other, those who don't follow the political aspects of the district (i.e., most voters) are no doubt exhausted by the continued need to recover its finances through painfully tight spending constraints. In such environments, it's easy to vote with a get rid of them all mentality, and Aranibar's race was the only school board contest on Tuesday's ballot.

For her part, the 70 year-old Cantrell has kept her cards close to her chest. She was essentially fired by the district last spring as Director of MTI, in what was called a consolidation and has said that it definitely impacted her decision to run.

She's denied that her election would translate to getting rid of current Superintendent Rick Mills, but her most prominent supporters were largely comprised of Mills' biggest political enemies. Bradenton City Councilman Gene Gallo, who clashed with Mills over former Manatee High Football Coach Joe Kinnan's departure, has been a strong supporter, as have several former administrators who have expressed disenchantment with the district's new administration.

"No words needed. This says it all," read the post on Julie Aranibar's campaign Facebook page, referring to a posted picture of former MCSD Superintendent Tim McGonegal (L).

At her victory party on Tuesday, Cantrell was flanked by former board attorney John Bowen and his former assistant Michelle Jimenez-Baserva, both of whom were close allies of McGonegal and have doggedly gone after the new administration (and Aranibar) from the outset. On Tuesday, Aranibar's campaign Facebook page featured a picture of McGonegal, whose fall from grace Aranibar's pressure to expose systemic financial problems within the district ultimately precipitated.

McGonegal, who was routinely criticized for electioneering while Superintendent and would often show up at campaign events to support members of the board he was friendly with, was out campaigning again this year, this time more openly and wearing a bright red "Cantrell for School Board" t-shirt.

How Cantrell's victory will affect the board remains to be seen. Aranibar's strongest ally on the board, fellow first-termer Karen Carpenter, survived an August challenge and will come back for four more years. With Barbara Harvey having just retired, Carpenter will be the last board member who has shown any sort of consistent support for Mills and his team.

 
First term member Dave Miner, elected in 2012, is rabidly opposed to Mills and his entire administration. Miner routinely calls for firings and resignations and has opposed nearly every effort and initiative they've made. It's hard to imagine he wouldn't jump at the first chance to get rid of Mills.

 
Bob Gause, who chaired the board during the district's financial collapse, was McGonegal's closest ally. McGonegal's decision to keep the financial troubles from both the board and the public in all likelihood allowed Gause to survive a 2012 challenge from noted school board watchdog Linda Schaich. While Gause voted for Mills when the district hired him in 2013, he initially supported former assistant superintendent Bob Gagnon and his support for Mills and his team has been lukewarm at best. Considering his close ties with the old guard, it's also difficult to imagine him not being willing to change directions should the opportunity present itself.

Along with Cantrell, the board will welcome Manatee High teacher Charlie Kennedy, who won the seat Harvey is vacating in an August race. Kennedy also says he's not looking to get rid of Mills. He has at times been both supportive and critical of the new administration, so again, it's hard to tell which way he'll go should Miner call the question, as expected. 

Only time will tell how Miner, Gause, Cantrell and Kennedy will gel and whether we'll see a four vote bloc emerge as some Aranibar/Carpenter supporters have claimed will be the case. At the very least, it's hard to imagine Carpenter winding up on the winning end of many votes, a position she got used to in her first two years.

As for Mills, a simple 3-2 vote can see him gone without cause at any time (an effort to require a 3-2 vote with cause, or 5-0 without, failed 3-2 earlier this year with only Carpenter and Aranibar in favor). He's built an impressive record in restoring a massive budget shortfall, while the district's ranking and scores on standardized tests improved simultaneously. Yet as Aranibar's defeat seems to have proven, success can be your worst enemy when it causes a bit of pain to be endured along the way.

As for Aranibar, it's hard to tell what the future holds. For whatever reason, she's wound up a very polarizing figure. She made many enemies who had cushy situations in the build up to McGonegal's implosion, even as Manatee slid to 47 of the state's 67 public school districts in the rankings (it's climbed up to 37 since). She also made much of the mainstream media look foolish, after they dismissed and even chastised her for basically screaming at the top of her lungs that all was not well, while McGonegal and company were cooking the books, misspending bond revenue and expanding the bloated administration with cushy jobs for loyal subjects. 

Once everyone was through wiping the egg off their faces, Aranibar found herself under relentless attack as former employees and other insiders bombarded the district with public record requests and baseless accusations they were then able to feed to a complicit local press, who seemed eager to keep a cloud over her head at all times.

It's a shame, because I've always found Ms. Aranibar to be a highly intelligent and independent-minded public official with a deep knowledge of the organization she legislates for. Her positions, even when I haven't agreed with them, were always rooted in careful consideration and accompanied by skillfully-articulated arguments. She cared deeply for the success of the district and was both disciplined and pragmatic in her approach, while always understanding both the responsibilities and limits of her seat. 

Anyone who has ever been to a school board or county commission meeting here in Manatee, where empty suits so often cast rubber stamp votes on issues they clearly lack a solid comprehension of, or have an apparent conflict of interest in, can tell you how painfully rare such qualities are. To see two intelligent, dedicated and reasonable candidates fall in Tuesday's races – one a Republican, one a Democrat – speaks to the larger problem in Manatee County than the registration disparity. There are 212,609 voters who can change that sad pattern. Only time will tell if they will.  

Correction: It was previously incorrectly stated in this column that Charlie Kennedy was in attendance at Mary Cantrell's campaign kick-off party.

Dennis Maley's column appears every Thursday and Sunday in The Bradenton Times. He can be reached at dennis.maley@thebradentontimes.com. Click here to visit his column archive. Click here to go to his bio page. You can also follow Dennis on Facebook.