Democrats Engage in Substantive Opening Debate

LAS VEGAS – Five Democrats took the stage in Las Vegas Tuesday night for their party’s first debate for the 2016 Presidential election. The event was marked by refreshing candor on the issues and civility between the candidates. Frontrunner Hillary Clinton performed well, while fringe candidate Martin O’Malley likely did the most to move the needle on his campaign.

Clinton and her main rival Bernie Sanders (who leads in New Hampshire and halved the gap in Iowa in recent months, despite a double digit deficit in national polls) gave strong performances and seemed to do little if anything that could hurt their candidacies.

The big question, however, was who if any of the second tier candidates could break through and get into the field. O’Malley, the former Governor of Maryland, former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chafee and former Virginia Senator and Secretary of the Navy James Webb had all been polling at less than 2 percent coming in.

O’Malley very clearly won the day among the three, giving perhaps the most polished performance of all five candidates. O’Malley distinguished himself in poised and measured responses that contained plenty of policy specifics, while managing to attack both Clinton and Sanders without seeming hostile or petty. He also gave the strongest opening and closing statements, proving he could be a force on the campaign trail should people start to pay serious attention.

Chafee, who didn't become a Democrat until 2013, failed to make a strong impression. Though he was the only candidate willing to attack Clinton on the email scandal and leaned heavily on his no vote to go into Iraq while serving in the Senate, Chafee seems unlikely to gain any ground. He struggled noticeably when questioned on his vote to repeal the Glass-Steagall financial reforms put in place during the Great Depression and repealed in 1999.

Webb, who might have distinguished himself as the best Republican in the race, never really seemed like he belonged on the stage. If anything, he may have reminded voters how far the GOP has moved over the years. Having served under Ronald Reagan as Secretary of the Navy, he may well be the most Reaganesque of anyone running in 2016, including the 15 Republicans seeking their party’s nomination who regularly invoke the 40th President.

Clinton got hit from all directions by both her fellow contenders and moderator Anderson Cooper but came out no worse for the wear. Her vote for invading Iraq in 2002, her support for a no fly zone in Syria, her flip flop on the TPP, the Benghazi crisis and her lack of enthusiasm for meaningful Wall Street reforms were all on the table, but the former Secretary of State never lost her composure and certainly seemed to have the most presence of the candidates on stage. Clinton leaned most heavily on her gun control record and used it as a stick against Sanders.

Sanders gave a strong performance that likely rallied his grassroots base. The Senator from Vermont clearly belonged on the stage and proved that he had the gravitas to go toe to toe with Clinton. He also seemed to score big points when, invited to attack Clinton on the email scandal, he demurred, saying, "The American people are sick and tired of hearing about (Clinton’s) emails.“ Sanders said that there was a process in place that would play out and the American people wanted and deserved a substantive discussion on the issues and how we were going to reverse what he claimed was a fast migration toward an oligarchy.

Sanders focused on income inequality, a "rigged economy," and a lack of opportunity for working class Americans to move up the ladder, while promising to address the cost of education, access to health care and expanding Social Security, if elected. On gun control, Clinton led the attack on Sanders, who, while receiving a D- rating from the NRA and supporting many gun control measures, also voted against some of them in the Senate. While this proved to be Sanders’ biggest weak spot in the debate, it would nonetheless be very difficult to argue that a more liberal position on that matter than Sanders has displayed would have any chance of moving forward, considering NRA influence in the Republican party.

Both Sanders and Clinton likely performed well enough to hold their positions, and it’s hard to see either Webb or Chafee moving up in the polls, or even staying in the race much longer for that matter. The wildcard will be O’Malley. If he is able to gather significant support, the question will be where it comes from–Clinton or Sanders. Conventional wisdom says that Sanders, who primarily enjoys grassroots support, will be less likely to lose that support to another conventional Democrat.

The other wildcard of course is Vice President Joe Biden who sat out Tuesday’s debate but is still considering entering the primary race. Polls show Biden cutting into Clinton’s support if he does, and that dynamic coupled with an O’Malley bump could close the gap between Sanders and Clinton. The next Democratic Primary debate will take place November 14 from Iowa.