Editorial: Lakewood Ranch Incorporation May Not Be the Prudent Path

LAKEWOOD RANCH -- I live in Lakewood Ranch, and lately I have been inundated with literature promoting the benefits of incorporating part of the area into its own city, rather than an unincorporated area of Manatee County. While this issue has been raised several times in the past few years, it seems as though there has been a concentrated effort, as of late, to push the matter forward.

This gives me great concern. As a government reporter, I have spent much time chronicling the challenges that municipal governments face and they are neither small nor simple. I found the feasibility study that was recently done by economist Dr. Hank Fishkind, and presented by a group called the Lakewood Ranch Civic Action Forum, to be rather far flung. While most the hard numbers were relatively accurate, in my mind, they failed to support the group’s main arguments for incorporation.

Proponents seem to be basing a large part of the argument on the position that Lakewood Ranch is a "surplus" area in the county, where almost a third more revenues are paid out then come in via services, and that by incorporating into a city, this would change significantly. I find that to be untrue, even when reading the study, which is based on very optimistic assumptions.

Very little of what is paid to Manatee County would change, were Lakewood Ranch to incorporate. The largest portion would be the ad valorem tax. The 6.2993 mills paid to the county would still be paid to the county, while just 0.6109 mills currently paid to the county, would stay in the new city. The city would get 1/2 penny of the sales tax, which would be less than a million more, and then there would possibly be some money from shared gas tax revenues, but that is not simple guaranteed revenue, and the estimate of $960,000 seems high for a town of 12 – 15,000.

On the other side, the report uses very conservative estimates of expenses. The numbers set aside for city council, the city attorney, and especially law enforcement seem on the low side. It predicts increasing reserves right from the start, without acknowledging that the oldest areas in the proposed city are fifteen years old, which is typically when infrastructure costs begin to ascend. Is it then a good time for a new city to absorb many of the infrastructure expenses that would otherwise fall to the county?

Another matter to consider is liability. The county is currently liable for most issues in unincorporated LWR, a burden that would also shift to the new city in most areas, and any city manager will tell you how expensive municipal litigation can be. In the end, I think it is extremely important for citizens to ask what exactly they would want from a city government that they are not getting from the county, what that would cost, and whether they would be willing and able to pay for it.

One of the most common issues I hear raised by residents is law enforcement. It’s important to note that the study doesn’t assume a new police force would be put in place, which is a good thing, because the numbers certainly cannot support it. Dr. Fishkind’s study allots $500,000 for law enforcement. The city of Palmetto, which is a good comparison, as it is almost identical in size to the proposed city of LWR, spends over 3.5 million annually on its police force.

When a city incorporates it has three options: 1. Continue with the currently allotted services appropriated at the sheriff’s discretion; 2. Contract with the sheriff’s department for an additional level of service that the city pays for; 3. Start their own force, which the sheriff’s department would still supplement.

Last year, Lakewood Ranch inquired to the Manatee County Sheriff’s Department as to the cost of adding additional services at a level it felt appropriate. The cost for 12 full-time deputies, four supervisors and equipment was $1.9 million. To give you some perspective, the city of Anna Maria Island, which has less than 2,000 residents, pays a little more than the half million Fishkind has allotted for law enforcement, for their additional services, so I don’t think it is realistic for an incorporated Lakewood Ranch to expect noticeably better policing, as one of the benefits, especially since the CDD’s (which would be dissolved) already pay for private security patrols to supplement current law enforcement.

As for the argument that too much of ”our money“ gets shipped out of the area to those ”other neighborhoods,“ I can’t help but feel that such an argument is designed to play to the lowest denominator, which saddens me, especially because it’s not a very sound argument. On paper, I suppose one could manage a position that more taxes are getting paid to the county than the value of services on any given year, but such analysis is flawed and myopic.

Over the past few years, the county has directed over $200 million in state highway dollars to the LWR area of East County. It has invested in numerous parks, which are among the nicest in the area. Lakewood Ranch is one of the newest neighborhoods in Manatee County and as such, required great initial investment on the county’s part. As it ages, there will certainly be years where it again requires more spending than it contributes, and such is the nature of municipal governments.

This is why so many officials are skeptical of the methodology used by Fishkind and Associates. It takes a snap shot and uses it to make a host of assumptions to back up certain forecasts. I will also admit that I am cynical of most hired gun type economists, when they are commissioned to produce a study and the people paying them have a certain outcome in mind. In my experience, the studies all too often seem like they are designed to prove an argument one side is making, and they usually find a way to do so, the same way a skilled attorney can convincingly argue either side of a case, especially if they’re arguing it to a less-educated, non-attorney.

The study in question was not peer reviewed, nor did it follow any sort of established protocols. The unfortunate reality is that nearly every city government is looking for ways to create revenue, whether it be raising taxes or increasing development. This is because municipal governments tend to cost more and more and in reality, rarely produce surpluses because unexpected costs always arise.

When looked at from the big picture, the surpluses in Dr. Fishkind’s study are actually small portions of big numbers and anyone familiar with local government can tell you how quickly such margins get eaten. Again, what is Lakewood Ranch lacking, and how would becoming its own city change that? The argument seems to be a vague assertion that it would give the residents more control over decisions that could protect the areas ”unique flavor“, but little is said as to how incorporation would achieve that.

One could argue that a city government is smaller and closer to the people than a larger county one, but one could just as easily argue that such a change would bring government further from the people as CDD’s are dissolved, since issues that were once brought to smaller individual CDD’s would now rest before a larger city council. It would also be worth noting that the smaller the government, the less experienced and capable its leaders tend to be. Judging by how surprisingly incompetent some members of our larger governing bodies are, I shudder to think of potentially less qualified people running a newly incorporated city.

It is also instructive to learn from other communities who’ve felt it best to alienate themselves from less affluent neighboring areas. Even if Lakewood Ranch were as truly self-sufficient as some would have you believe, it is important to understand that a suburb ignoring nearby urban cores can prove self-defeating. Crime, poverty, and hopelessness know no borders. If you enrich one area at another’s expense, the cost can come back two-fold or more. Communities working together tend to benefit mutually from synergy and shared resources, even if one does bear more of the up-front cost burdens during certain periods of ebb and flow.

In the end, the most significant change that I see occurring would be a shift in control of the comprehensive development plan. Development matters like zoning agricultural land for commercial or residential properties, density restrictions and so forth, would now rest on a newer and smaller government and that concerns me, especially since the majority of money behind the study came from builders, developers, and development-related local businesses.

Any argument in either direction also must allow for the reality that the newly elected city council could vote to do anything, including raising taxes, as well as deviating from every other matter assumed in Dr. Fishkind’s study. Every citizen must be aware that any assumption of services made in the feasibility study would be meaningless once those officials were in office.

I will grant that the county government sometimes leaves much to be desired, and that may well feed into an area’s yearning to have their own decision makers. The Board of County Commissioners seems to be dominated by a few individuals who all too quickly roll over for land developers on nearly every issue, and some seem less than capable when it comes to fully comprehending some of the more complex issues. However, I see and hear nothing to indicate that the interests that would most likely dominate LWR politics would mean less of that rather than more.

I believe that Lakewood Ranch at its current size and that of its foreseeable future, still benefits most by being under the umbrella of Manatee County. It has received a fair shake in the allocation of resources and there were many years when other parts of the county could have justifiably argued that it received more. Should Lakewood Ranch wish to protect its interests and influence its growth, I think residents would be better served focusing their energy and resources on ensuring a strong and competent county commissioner to represent their aims, than in taking on the considerably more ambitious and risky venture of incorporation.