Four-Way GOP Race Will Remain Muddled in Crowded Debate

LAS VEGAS – The race for the Republican Party's presidential nomination is finally beginning to shake out, with four candidates polling at 13 percent or higher in national averages, while the rest of the field remains in low single digits. Rather than give voters a better chance to see the top-tier candidates face off, however, the RNC has stuck with watered down thresholds that have allowed nine candidates to qualify.

Why would they do that? Many people think it has a lot to do with Jeb Bush. The former Florida governor has raised hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign and PAC money from the Republican establishment, yet he's not even on the radar in most polls and is only at 4.2 percent in the Real Clear Politics aggregator. Still, the RNC clearly does not want to alienate that many deep-pocketed donors by stuffing their candidate on the "undercard debate."

Donald Trump remains in front of the field with 29.8 percent nationally, giving him a commanding 13.1 percent lead over a surging Ted Cruz, though the Texas Senator has essentially moved into a tie in Iowa, where Trump continues to perform worse than in most other states, mostly owed to the preferences of the state's large population of evangelical Christians among its Republican voter base. Marco Rubio remains at 13 percent nationally, joined there by a free falling Ben Carson to round out the top four.

The problem with allowing Jeb to join those four on a five-candidate stage is that Ohio Gov. John Kasich, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Sen. Rand Paul and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are all within the margin of error in trailing Bush. The new criteria allows any candidate with an average of at least 3.5 percent in the national polls or 4 percent in either Iowa or New Hampshire to qualify for the prime time event.