GOP's Election Day Success Cannot be Explained Away

Republicans were expected to do well on Tuesday, but any way you look at it, they surpassed even the most optimistic expectations. On a local, state and national level, Tuesday night belonged to the GOP.
 
While predictions favored Republican candidates, no one was really talking about the sort of results that would rival 2010's Tea Party tidal wave for Republicans on Tuesday. Yet, a closer look would suggest that their collective success was quite similar to that historic year.

We might be in what you would call an era of Republican mid-term dominance, in which the party's ability to rally their base and turn out their vote in non-Presidential years allows it to quietly take over state, local and national government.
 
Republicans netted at least 7 new seats in the Senate (one more is headed to a December runoff) and have taken control of that chamber for the first time in eight years, while strengthening their hold in the House to the strongest majority since World War II.
 
Their congressional success was the most heavily expected. Some of the Senate races were for seats that had traditionally been Republican but were closely won by Democrats during the Barack Obama wave of 2008. Six years later, with the President's approval rating in the toilet during a lame-duck term, it was expected that they'd swing back to the GOP.
 
However, some of the victories were surprising, like the upset of popular Democratic Senator Mark Udall in Colorado, while Virginia Democrat Mark Warner, a well-liked, moderate former governor, had to hold on for dear life in narrowly retaining his seat. The Democratic Party's all-out assault on Mitch McConnell's in Kentucky also proved futile. They threw everything but the kitchen sink at the old man, but it all bounced off.
 
Republicans also had success in closely watched gubernatorial races. Florida Governor Rick Scott won a close re-election, despite dismal approval ratings and a strong challenge from former governor Charlie Crist, while right-wing Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker easily fended off a heavy challenge in a deeply divided swing state that had twice voted for President Obama.
 
Republican Governors also scored some major upsets. The Democratic stronghold of Illinois saw frontrunner Pat Quinn go down in defeat, while the liberal bastion of Massachusetts swung back to the GOP in another surprise result, as did traditionally blue Maryland.
 
The Republican Party's big night was no doubt amplified by their success in state legislatures in 2010, which gave them the chance to control most redistricting following that year's census. However, that success at the state level continued on Tuesday, with GOP victories reducing Democratic influence in state legislatures to levels not seen since the roaring 20's.
 
That's right, at no time since before the Great Depression have Democrats been so poorly represented in state governments. Try as they may, they can't blame that all on gerrymandering, which itself only occurs when one party gets itself that much power in the first place. That points to the Democratic Party's real problem, which is turnout. Republicans vote, Democrats don't.
 
Some strategists have warned that the Republicans might find themselves the victim of their own success in 2016. They don't have a super-majority in the Senate, meaning little will likely change in terms of gridlock, and in 2016 they'll see much of the electoral math Democrats battled this year when so many of those 2010 Senate victories in states that had historically elected Democrats come back to the ballot.
 
Voter frustration might indeed point itself at Republicans, which could help Democrats in the Presidential race as well, where their electoral math is better to begin with. Nonetheless, I'd rather have the GOP's problems than the Democrats'. Figuring out how to keep winning is always a lot easier than not getting too comfortable with defeat.

Getting control of the White House will still be a major hurdle for Republicans in 2016. Like I said, the math favors Democrats in the Electoral College, plus the Republican base has made it difficult to impossible for the sort of moderate Republican who would be most likely to appeal to the broader electorate to get the nomination.

Nonetheless, the White House isn't that much use when you don't have the votes on the Hill. Republicans would surely like to have all three, but might be at least somewhat contented to control the vast majority of gears and levers, while still having someone from the other party down the street to cast blame on when things go sideways.

Dennis Maley's column appears every Thursday and Sunday in The Bradenton Times. He can be reached at dennis.maley@thebradentontimes.com. Click here to visit his column archive. Click here to go to his bio page. You can also follow Dennis on Facebook.