Governor's Race Tightens; Crist Encouraged by Absentees

BRADENTON — Democrat Charlie Crist has taken the lead over Florida Governor Rick Scott for the first time in two months, though the difference remains within the margin of error for what remains a too-close-to-call race. Democrats did, however, request more absentee ballots than in 2010, when they trailed the GOP in that metric by 12 percent, leading some analysts to conclude that Democratic turnout, long the party's Achilles heel in midterm elections, may have been improved by their massive get out the vote efforts.

The GOP, who has long dominated absentee voting in Florida, still has an advantage in requests, be it only 3 points. The Crist campaign has been focused on turning out Democrats who tend only to vote in Presidential election years and says that the growth in absentee requests is a sign of success.

In 2010, Democrat Alex Sink didn't have much of a coordinated get-out-the-vote campaign beyond that which was done by grassroots volunteers. Crist's team, meanwhile, has been able to fund such efforts.

Governor Scott still has a considerable financial advantage, but almost $40 million worth of ads so far hasn't moved the ball in terms of polling. That financial advantage will also recede in the last month as Crist, who has had to conserve much of his more modest campaign funding for the home stretch, spends his money.

Of course there are still the debates, so it remains to be seen whether voters are swayed when the two candidates go head to head. Crist and Scott will square off on Spanish language station Telemundo October 10, then at Broward College October 15 and finally on CNN October 21.

The most recent poll to include Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie had him pulling 8 percent, 3 percent below his peak of 11. Unless Wyllie sees a major boost, he looks unlikely to meet the threshold of 15 percent to qualify for the debates.