New poll of GOP gov race shows the power of Trump endorsement in Donalds-Casey DeSantis matchup

A public opinion survey shows U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leading Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis, 44%-25, in the race for the Republican nomination for governor in 2026.

That’s from a new poll conducted for the James Madison Institute (JMI) in the middle of May among 516 Republican voters.

That’s after those Republicans were informed that Donalds has already been endorsed by President Donald Trump for the governor’s race. The poll says initial results from GOP voters surveyed before learning of the Trump backing had Ms. DeSantis narrowly leading Donalds by a single point, 29%-28%.

Ms. DeSantis is not a declared candidate yet for governor, but she has not dismissed the possibility of running next year to succeed her husband, Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited from running again.

She has faced more media attention over the past month than at any other time as First Lady over the past six years. That’s because of reports about potential misappropriation of funds involving Hope Florida and the Hope Florida Foundation, the social welfare charity that she has been associated with.

Gov. DeSantis has accused House Republicans, the “liberal media,” and Democrats of launching “baseless smears against Hope Florida and by extension myself and the First Lady,” he said at a press conference in Kissimmee last month.

Donalds announced his candidacy for governor on Feb. 26, five days after  Trump endorsed him. Since his announcement, Donalds has reported raising more than $12 million as of the end of March, with most of that money flowing into his affiliated political committee.

The James Madison Institute commissioned two public polls, one in April and one in early May. The April poll results were taken when South Florida Sen. Jason Pizzo was still in the Democratic Party and a potential nominee for that party’s gubernatorial nomination next year.

The May poll shows former Northwest Florida U.S. Rep. and now cable news pundit Matt Gaetz in third place at 10%; Jeanette Nuñez, the former lieutenant governor and now interim president of Florida International University, in fourth place with 9% support. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is next with 5%.

Democratic field

As mentioned above, the JMI poll surveyed voters in both April and May. In April, it surveyed 464 Democratic voters, who gave Pizzo 41% support.

In distant second place at that time was Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava with 15%. Former Republican U.S. Rep. turned Democrat David Jolly was next with 7%, followed by former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham at 5%.

Jacksonville state Rep. Angie Nixon and former South Florida state Sen. Lauren Book were next at 4%. South Florida state Sen. Shevrin Jones was at 2% and House Leader Fentrice Driskell was at 1%.

But with Pizzo’s departure, a follow-up survey in May of 396 Democratic voters showed Mayor Levine Cava now leads the Democrats with 32%. Gwen Graham is next at 13%, followed by Jolly at 10% and former state Sen. Lauren Book at 7%. However, 20% were undecided.

Targoz Market Research conducted surveys of 1,200 voters in both months. 43% of respondents said they were Republicans, 33% Democrats, and 23% independent voters. The survey has a +/—margin of error of 2.77%.

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