Next Saturday's FL Straw Poll Could Give Pivotal Momentum

BRADENTON – Florida's success in pushing forward its primary vote has indeed had the impact of giving it more weight in the presidential primary races. In the past, Iowa and New Hampshire were seen as critical, but if separate candidates one each, South Carolina could break the tie so to speak. If any candidate got two of the three, they were almost a shoe-in. Now, Florida can either cement or swing momentum in a close race, which is leading many pundits to predict that he who takes the Sunshine State, will take it all.

 

That's why next week's Presidency 5 event in Orlando is starting to be touted as a pivotal event in the race to secure the nomination – even though some candidates will not be participating, most notably former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney. Romney, who also skipped the Aimes, Iowa straw poll event has decided not to lobby for straw polls and instead focus on winning the primaries in each state.

 

photo by Gage Skidmore

It might seem odd that candidates would have to participate in the straw poll, since it's pretty clear who is and isn't running, but Aimes demonstrated that if you don't give a speech, you don't get votes (Congresswoman Michele Bachmann won the Aimes event, with Congressman Ron Paul coming in a close second).

 

So far, only Rick Perry, Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain have committed to participate. However, the Fox News/Google GOP debate will take place in Orlando on the eve of the P5 opening – which could mean the straw poll would be more reflective of the entire field. One thing is for certain, on the the three occasions that Florida has held GOP straw polls, the candidate has won both the state and the nomination (Reagan, Bush I and Bob Dole).

 

With Florida's newfound weight making a scenario where a candidate failed to win both New Hampshire and Iowa, but went on to win South Carolina and Florida and then the nomination possible, some see that as a road to victory for Perry, especially if two candidates split the first two states. Perry's already lined up impressive support in South Carolina and while many major Florida donaos remain undecided, he's made good end roads here, even though Romney has had a strong coordinated presence (including a Tampa campaian office) long before the Texas Governor got into the race. It's therefore no surprise that the Sunshine State is becoming a major player in the battle for the nomination, and regardless of who participates, all eyes will be on Florida next week – again.