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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 955 AM EST TUESDAY JAN 4 2015
UPDATE...
14Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. POTENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS ARRIVING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION...FOLLOWED QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM BY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NORTHERN STREAM THEN DIPS RAPIDLY ONCE AGAIN INTO A SHARP AND COLD TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS JUST NOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH...OFF THE GA/NE FLORIDA COAST. LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING/DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE FORT MYERS/HIGHLANDS COUNTY AREAS.
A MUCH DRIER TROP COLUMN IS NOW ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE STILL HAD A DECENT MOISTURE PROFILE THROUGH ABOUT 500MB BEFORE REACHING THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER ABOVE. HOWEVER...LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING...WHICH HAD THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 700MB...AND MUCH DRIER AIR BETWEEN 700-500MB...WOULD ASSUME SOME OF THIS MID/LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA HAS ALREADY SCOURED OUT SINCE THE BALLOON SAMPLED THE AIRMASS. THIS DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR ALL THIS AFTERNOON IS IN THE FORECAST.
THE AIRMASS ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD (ESPECIALLY FOR THE TIME OF YEAR)...HOWEVER AFTER THE WARMTH OF DECEMBER...IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE A BIG CHANGE. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD END UP GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S UP NORTH TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH TOWARD THE FORT MYERS AREA.
TONIGHT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE THE COLD NIGHT FOR THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP WELL TO OUR NORTH ALLOWING FOR A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA TO CONTINUE. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH KEEPS THE GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR...EVEN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES. THEREFORE...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIVE PROCESSES OVERNIGHT...BUT RATHER A PURE ADVECTION AIRMASS NIGHT. ONE OF THE COLDER NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SPEAKING MOS TENDS TO BE A BIT ON THE COLD SIDE WITH ADVECTION EVENTS. MOS WOULD SUGGEST THAT TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING TOWARD DAWN ACROSS PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY. BASED ON THE MOS BIAS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 30S AROUND CHIEFLAND FOR NOW AND RE-EVALUATE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S...THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT APPEARS LOW FOR THESE FAR NORTHERN AREAS. FAILING TO DECOUPLE ALONE MIGHT PREVENT IT...BUT ALSO LOOKING FOR A FAIRLY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. WOULD TEND TO LOOK FOR DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 5 DEGREES IF FROST WAS GOING TO BE THREAT...AND CURRENTLY NOT SEEING THAT IN THE GUIDANCE. SO...FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZE...AND LOW TEMPS BY SUNRISE RANGING FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FURTHER SOUTH. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS WITH A NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF THE WATER...SUCH AS SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY...AND THE ISLAND OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH THE LIGHT BREEZE...WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S ARE LIKELY TO REACH SOUTH BY SUNRISE TO NORTHEAST HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTY.
A PLEASANT...SEASONABLE...BUT BREEZY DAY IN STORE FOR YOUR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH KEEPING OUR WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. CERTAINLY LOOKS AS THROUGH IT WILL BE WINDY ON SOME OF THE AREA LAKES BY MID TO LATE MORNING...SO BE AWARE OF THAT POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 UP TOWARD CHIEFLAND...BUT RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR...AND INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR PLACES LIKE SARASOTA/PUNTA GORDA/FORT MYERS. LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUN AND SHALLOW CU FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
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