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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
930 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2015
UPDATE...
MORNING STRATUS STILL HANGING AROUND...THOUGH MOST OF THE COASTAL
PORTIONS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH ARE EXPERIENCING SUNNY SKIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC UNITED
STATES CONTINUES TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA
PROVIDING A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AS THE
DAY CONTINUES AND MIXING IMPROVES...TBW VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THAT COULD CREATE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
MPH TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MORNING SHOWERS HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED BUT MORE ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN
TRANSMITTED.
AVIATION...
MORNING STRATUS AT SOME TERMINALS WILL BE REPLACED WITH LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. SOME SHOWERS
COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY RSW...LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN THIS MORNING.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AN EVENING EASTERLY SURGE WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP TO
SCEC/SCA FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. NO FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WEEKEND.
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