Noon News Update: November 9, 2015

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
510 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015

UPDATE ... WILL BE ISSUING A COASTAL HAZARDS MESSAGE FOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION ... ISSUED 400 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

FOR TODAY THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH AND WEST AS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ... BUT OVERALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 20 TO 30 PERCENT. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH AND COULD SEE READINGS APPROACH RECORD LEVELS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE AWAY SO THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ... BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST WITH LOWER TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

BY TUESDAY MORNING THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN EXIT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES A FRONTAL SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ... ALLOWING THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA TO EXIT BY WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND DEVELOP AS IT SPEEDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FLORIDA LATE IN THE PERIOD ... SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ... BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INCLUDING OUR AREA.

THIS COULD BE THE FIRST CHILL OF THE SEASON FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S POSSIBLE NEXT SUNDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND BOTH MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS ... THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ... ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO DELIVER THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS. NEEDLESS TO SAY ... THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AND TRENDS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AS THE WEEK CONTINUES.

AVIATION...
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD ALSO CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE ... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO A MORE NORTHWEST TO NORTH DIRECTION TUESDAY THEN NORTHEASTERLY FOR MIDWEEK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY THEN SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING MID TO LATE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.

 

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ... FL ... HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.