BRADENTON – It’s been a wildly unpredictable presidential primary on both sides of the aisle, but while many factors have broken the mold–such as the relative ineffectiveness of big-money PACs and the success of candidates who haven't raised the most money–some remain steadfast. Now that we know where the demographics are trending, who shows up becomes the most important factor in both races.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump has scored big with nearly every demographic, but has scored his biggest victory by juicing the turnout. Nearly every single Republican contest has included record turnout among voters. This suggests that Trump is bringing a lot of new voters–or at least voters who usually sit out the primaries–to the polls. He also has done best in states that have open primaries by winning over a lot of independents. That not only favors Trump in the primary, but it bodes well for him in the general election and could help Republicans keep their lock on Congress and many state legislatures, assuming his supporters pull the R lever on down-ballot races.
Democratic turnout has been very low this season, especially compared to the record levels of the party’s last primary in 2008. In South Carolina, Democrats saw a 30 percent decrease in primary voters, while Republicans saw a 20 percent increase, leading to almost twice as many GOP voters compared to Dems participating. This continued through Super Tuesday, where even the candidates’ home states of Arkansas and Vermont reported huge drop-offs. Analysts have called this an "enthusiasm gap" between Republican and Democratic voters.
Like Trump, Democratic grassroots candidate Bernie Sanders is clearly bringing a lot of new primary voters to the polls, but his success is likely being magnified by a lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton. This hasn’t been enough for Sanders to catch Clinton yet, and their race seems to be the one most clearly linked to demographics.
Sanders is winning voters under 30–male, female, white and minority–by an 8-2 margin overall. But while millennials have driven much of the 74 year-old Senator’s success, they are not showing up to vote in large enough numbers to make the difference between being surprisingly competitive and winning states. Sanders also does very well among educated white voters, especially in rural areas.
Clinton’s success has hinged on her virtual lock with older female voters and all minority demographics over 30. Analysts expected that African-American turnout would fall off most dramatically, considering that it was at an all-time high in 2008, when the party nominated its first African-American candidate. Instead, African-Americans have been turning out while the youth vote has fallen off, and it’s made an enormous difference.
African-Americans of all income and education levels, especially those over 50, prefer Clinton by a very wide margin. This has had a more pronounced impact in southern states, where African-Americans have often comprised more than 50 percent of Democratic primary voters, leading to huge Clinton wins in states like South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas and Alabama. Going forward, Sanders has better demographics than he’s had so far, but the outcome may not change if turnout does not reflect those demographics at the polls. Surprisingly, it will not be female voters in general, but rather millennials or African-Americans who will be the deciding factor in the Democratic contest, and so far it looks like the latter.
On the Republican side, it will continue to be a story of overall turnout. Conventional wisdom said that once the field thinned, Trump’s lead would shrink as the supporters of more conventional candidates like Jeb Bush and Chris Christie coalesced around a similar, non-Trump candidate. But while Senator Marco Rubio may have picked up some of that vote, it hasn’t made much of a difference. Rubio’s supporters, along with much of the GOP establishment, have tried to make the case this week that Ohio Gov. John Kasich should drop out in order to consolidate more of the establishment vote, but there’s no evidence of that changing the calculus in any meaningful way.
On Super Tuesday, it was again Ted Cruz who narrowly established himself as the only fringe contender to Trump, winning two states to remain in a distant second place in the delegate count. Rubio picked up only a single caucus in Minnesota (and its mere 38 delegates). Furthermore, once Ben Carson exits the race, it will likely be Trump who benefits most from picking up his remaining supporters in other states. As the contests head north, the number of favorable factors also shrink for Cruz and improve for Trump, who at this point seems to be clearly on his way to snagging the nomination.
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