pinion Florida Republicans Begin to Shake Out Deep Roster for Upcoming Races

Jeb Bush might be the Florida Republican getting the most ink in the daily news cycle, but the trickle down of GOP pols looking to vie for higher office remains considerable. With Marco Rubio set to throw his hat in the presidential ring next week, the rest of the state's Republicans have begun moving their pieces around the chessboard.

Once it became clear that Bush would be seeking the party's presidential nomination in 2016, Rubio seemed to slip from contender to wildcard. Long seen as a likely member of the field, the first-term Senator nonetheless looked decidedly junior once his former mentor entered the fray. Rumors began to circulate that our former state House Speaker would instead look to run for Governor of Florida in 2018.

Conventional wisdom said that Rubio would be an instant front-runner on any statewide ballot, which meant that Florida's three incumbent, second-term cabinet officials – Ag commisioner Adam Putnam, CFO Jeff Atwater and AG Pam Bondi – seemed to have a lot riding on which path Rubio chose.

In the wake of what amounted to Rubio's announcement that he would soon make his announcement, Atwater moved first, telling supporters that he intended to run for Rubio's Senate seat in 2016. While that doesn't rule the CFO out as a 2018 gubernatorial candidate, it suggests that, like everyone else, he sees Putnam as the heir apparent to Scott in any GOP field that doesn't include Rubio.

Bondi still says she has no plans insofar as running for higher office. However, in addition to the gubernatorial race in 2018, Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is not expected to run for reelection that year, meaning there will most likely be two big, wide open races on the ballot. If Atwater were to win in 2016 and Putnam to run for governor, Bondi – who won both of her AG races by landslides – would be a very viable candidate for Nelson's seat, or possibly even the governor's mansion.

The 2018 Senate primary could wind up being a crowded field, however. Both Governor Scott and local Congressman Vern Buchanan – one of the wealthiest members of Congress – have already indicated that the race is on their radar, while conservative TV personality Joe Scarborough also made news recently when he said he’d be open to entering the race. All three would be able to bring big, big dollars to their campaigns, immediately changing the calculus of the primary.  

Atwater winning Rubio’s Senate seat would also create an opening at CFO, which would be filled by gubernatorial appointment. Because a cabinet seat gives a politician instant statewide name recognition, there would undoubtedly be many suitors vying for the post. Local developer Pat Neal, who was seen as a frontrunner for the post in 2014, when Atwater sought the presidency of Florida Atlantic, has reportedly said he’s still interested. His close ties to the governor’s office surely wouldn’t hurt his chances.

Rubio running for President in 2016 certainly doesn't rule out the idea of seeing him in 2018. With or without Jeb in the field, the Miami-based Senator would be an underdog to get the GOP Presidential nomination, though as a Latino Senator from a swing state, he would definitely find his way onto any nominee’s VP shortlist. If he comes up deuces in 2016, but gives it a good run, it’s easy to imagine him still jumping into the governor’s race in 2018.

As for Bush, he seems to have a considerable lead in the race to become the “establishment candidate,” as key Republican donors clearly favor him over Chris Christie. However, the recent rise of influential right wing Super Pacs, funded by the likes of Sheldon Adelson and the Koch brothers, has already demonstrated some of the challenges he’ll face in fighting his way out of the primaries.

Adelson’s kettle ran red when former Secretary of State James Baker – a Bush foreign policy advisor – blamed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hawkish stance on Iran for the stalled Middle East Peace process. Adelson is seen as the most demanding super donor on the GOP side, even more so than the Kochs. However, any GOP candidate who lost both of them to a rival would be dealt a meaningful blow, even Bush.

Rubio might be counting on Bush’s difficulties on the right wing, though he would be joining a crowded field of far-right candidates, including fellow Senator Ted Cruz and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, both of whom have aggressively courted that crowd since making their intentions to run known. While Walker and Cruz may offer even more conservative platforms than Rubio, donors like Adelson and the Kochs could, however, see the junior Senator from Florida as more electable in the general.

No matter how it all ultimately shakes out, there’s no doubt that Florida Republicans have a deep, deep bench: Bush, Rubio, Putnam, Bondi, Atwater, Scott, Buchanan, etc. Among Democrats, only Congressmen Patrick Murphy (who’s already launched a campaign for Rubio’s seat) and Alan Grayson have registered even a blip on the radar.

Otherwise, the D team is looking at resurrecting failed candidates like Charlie Crist and Alex Sink or going with long shots like Debbie Wasserman Schultz or Gwen Graham. Any way you slice it, continued Republican dominance in the Sunshine State seems like a safe bet at this stage of the game. 

Dennis Maley's column appears every Thursday and Sunday in The Bradenton Times. He can be reached at dennis.maley@thebradentontimes.com. Click here to visit his column archive. Click here to go to his bio page. You can also follow Dennis on Facebook.