pinion Marco Rubio and the False Call of Higher Office

At the conclusion of the 2010 mid-term election, Marco Rubio was the hottest topic in politics. That's no exaggeration. On the morning of November 3, the former speaker of the state house got more press than any politician in the country. It wasn’t even close. The mainstream media had cast him as the face of the Tea Party wave they had credited with giving the GOP historic gains.

In truth, the Tea Party effect actually had little to do with the general election results that November, at least according to post-election data. The biggest factors were low turnout among Democrats, good turnout for Republicans and seniors, and a youth vote, which had turned out stronger than seniors for the first time ever in 2008, that fell back to typically dismal mid-term levels in 2010.

While campaigning, Rubio himself was careful not to associate with the Tea Party movement, never even mentioning the words publicly and avoiding questions when asked. On occasions when he went to rallies that were sponsored by Tea Party groups, he spoke only the standard conservative rhetoric and even refused to be caught on stage with divisive figures like Sarah Palin.

In fact, candidates that actually ran embracing the Tea Party (remember Christine O'Donnell, Carl Paladino or Sharron Angle?) tanked that November. Only one in three won their races – sometimes after having ousted a Republican in the primary who would have easily won in the general.

Now, don't get me wrong. The Tea Party movement was still a major success for its supporters, who proved themselves a dangerously organized lot. After demonstrating that it actually was possible to mount an in-party insurgency in the primary – even against seemingly unbeatable, better financed opponents – they scared the GOP establishment politicians into giving them real policy influence, lest they too get “primaried.”

In fact, their support of Rubio was, in essence, a primary job on presumed candidate Charlie Crist, then a Republican who'd given up Florida’s governor's mansion at the peak of his popularity in order to chase the Senate seat that Mel Martinez had vacated. Crist, who just two years earlier was on the shortlist of VP candidates being vetted by GOP nominee John McCain, was, in effect, chased out of his own party’s primary by the Tea Party and forced to run as an independent, largely because the group didn't think he was conservative enough.

Therefore, you can certainly argue that if there was no Tea Party, there would be no Senator Rubio. In that regard, his victory was theirs too, even if he continued to distance himself once on the hill, quickly saying no thanks when the inaugural Tea Party Caucus convened.

Nonetheless, Senator Rubio continued to straddle the line between the establishment and the right wing fringe well enough to continue a nearly unprecedented ascent in the Republican ranks. By 2012, he was arguably the biggest star in the GOP. Indeed, the February 18, 2013 issue of Time Magazine featured a giant photo of Rubio with the words Savior of the Republican Party splashed over it in large, bold yellow print.

It didn’t take long, however, before the rubber met the road and Senator Rubio made the miscalculation that would earn the group's ire, when he tried to take on his only real signature issue in the Senate – an ambitious stab at comprehensive immigration reform that, while quite conservative, wasn't nearly as line-in-the-sand rigid as the Tea Party was demanding. In an ironic twist, it looked like the very group that he had deftly navigated all the way to Washington would be the very one to send him back to south Florida.

Between 2013 and 2015, it seemed like the Miami-born Cuban's star had indeed fallen, as new right wing darlings like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul began to get more attention on the hill and in the media. Talk of Rubio reaching for the White House in 2016 all but disappeared. Once Jeb Bush made his presidential ambitions known, it seemed even less likely that Rubio could mount an effective campaign for the party's nomination, let alone consider giving up a secure Senate seat to do so.

Still, this Monday, Senator Rubio defied common sense and threw his hat into the ring. It’s not hyperbole to argue that Rubio has virtually nothing to run on. Next to Jeb, he seems painfully inexperienced – even amateurish. Same could be said comparing him to Chris Christie. From there, he can only go right, where he's outflanked by Cruz (who didn't have to give up his seat to run) and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, both of whom have much better far-right bona fides.

Rubio will likely be down on the third tier with candidates like Senator Paul, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, former PA Senator Rick Santorum and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

He could be positioning himself as a potential VP candidate, though if Jeb gets the nomination, as expected, there would seem no incentive to put someone from his home state on the ticket.

Now, lots of people run for President when they don't have much chance of getting their party's nomination. It’s a good way to advance their favored policies and demonstrate their ability for other posts or a future run. They just don't tend to give up a safe seat in the United States Senate to do so. Rubio could have probably kept his Senate seat for as long as he wanted it. Someday he would have found himself in party leadership with a chance to shape the GOP platform.

If he really wanted to take a meaningful shot at the White House, Rubio may have been better off first running for Governor of Florida when Rick Scott steps down in 2018. Of course he could still do that if he fails in 2016, but two years out of office can have a funny impact on the way everyone from fundraisers to voters look at you.

Were Rubio to run for governor in 2018 as a sitting Senator, I'd say he'd be a very strong favorite to win. Should he give up his Senate seat and then get beaten soundly in the primary, I think Adam Putnam surpasses him as the favorite for the governor's mansion.

Meanwhile, local Congressman Vern Buchanan says he hasn't ruled out running for Rubio's Senate seat, especially now that CFO Jeff Atwater has shocked everyone by saying he wouldn't pursue it. As I've noted in a previous column, Buchanan would also be giving up an extremely safe seat, possibly even a future as Speaker or Whip, for a race he’s far from certain to win.

Sometimes the call of higher office can be too loud to ignore. Rubio and Buchanan should listen closely, however, because our ears can play funny tricks on us. That sound they hear may be an echo of their own ambitions rather than a genuine call to action.

Dennis Maley's column appears every Thursday and Sunday in The Bradenton Times. He can be reached at dennis.maley@thebradentontimes.com. Click here to visit his column archive. Click here to go to his bio page. You can also follow Dennis on Facebook.