Possible 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates: Part 2

Part 2 of a special 4-part series

My first piece on potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates focused on the big names that most Americans are familiar with. As I noted, it is very typical for these candidates to be out front two years away, when the campaigning is just beginning and that polls this early rarely coincide with what actually happens. I will note that I received far and away the most emails from supporters of Mike Huckabee who vehemently believe he will be the nominee.

It also leaked that same week, that White House staff asked off the record whom they felt they would be facing in 2012, unanimously responded that the former Arkansas governor was most likely to get the nod. Also, the most recent CNN poll puts Huckabee 1 point in front of Romney (21 percent) for the first time this year, so I will concede that he may be the one candidate of the four now polling (Romney, Palin and Gingrich) that has a chance at securing the nomination – assuming he runs, which now seems more likely.

This week, we'll take a look at the strongest candidates most Americans haven't heard of. It bears mentioning that there is a particularly strong field of potential candidates this time out. I don't remember a recent cycle where there were so many genuine prospects on either side and so few that you could sort of mentally cross off, right from the get go. There is also no clear front runner in this group. All of them have taken the initial steps to test the waters and all of them have found receptive pockets of support. How the rest of America perceives them when they get on the bigger stage will likely determine where the really big money goes, and that might ultimately be the deciding factor in who pulls away from the pack.

Rick Perry – I have to admit that the Governor of Texas struck me as being the strongest candidate I've seen thus far. In fact, if this year had been a presidential election and he were running, I think he would've won handily. Perry's strong state/small federal government message strikes a chord with the voters who had the biggest impact at the polls this year. He says he's not running, but the timing of his book, Fed Up, and the coinciding tour indicate that he is seriously testing the waters. He was, however, recently appointed as head of the Republican Governor's Association, which would seem to indicate that perhaps he means it when he says he has no interest in seeking the office.  

Perry was Lt. Governor of Texas under President Bush and assumed the governor's mansion when then Governor Bush resigned with two years left in order to pursue the presidency. He has since won an unprecedented three full terms, making him the longest serving governor in Texas history. Perry has successfully managed to keep property taxes low without a state income tax, while adding significantly more jobs per capita than any other state during the recent economic recession. Perry has consistently criticized the federal government as intrusive, suggesting that they stick to matters such as defense and even requesting "boots on the ground" along the Texas/Mexico border.

Perry is extremely conservative on social issues. He is a born-again Cristian and advocates teaching intelligent design in public schools. He is staunchly pro-life and signed a bill limiting late-term abortions to the strictest degree in the United States and is adamantly opposed to embryonic stem cell research. Governor Perry said that he would sign an Arizona-styled immigration bill and signed a Texas Defense of Marriage bill in advance of the federal law. He does not believe in the science of global warming and is a major advocate of deregulation. In short, think Ronald Reagan if he were even more conservative.

So, for the extremely conservative arm of the party, Perry meets all of the criteria and has a longstanding record to back up his words. For moderates, liberals and progressives, Perry will be a lightening rod, so again it depends where the mood of the electorate sits 23 months from now. There are of course other candidates that fit that mold, but none have the experience of Perry, who also brings a lot of intangibles to the table. He has a strong, authoritative presence and can forcefully articulate his message without seeming condescending. I hate this word, but he's "presidential" in a way that you usually only see in movies. That shouldn't matter, but I won't insult you by pretending that such things don't impact voter perception. If he runs, Governor Rick Perry has a better than average chance to become president.   


Mitch Daniels – Indiana's Mitch Daniels is another sitting  governor who can point to plenty of examples citing his willingness to cut spending, the driving force of conservatives in 2010. Daniels cut $250 million from the Indiana budget and saved $190 million by renegotiating government contracts and the cutting the state’s rate of spending growth in half. He also privatized the welfare and state benefit process in his state.

However, he was also willing to raise taxes when cuts weren't enough to balance the budget and he worked across the aisle to implement a health care bill that subsidizes an HSA in health care plans for the working poor that are just beyond Medicaid, but still cannot afford coverage on their own. Whether such pragmatism and the results that were achieved will help staunch ideologues on the far right see past these cardinal sins of conservatism remains to be seen, but Daniels is popular in his home state.

Governor Daniels has won unprecedented support in the right-leaning swing state, winning 72 of 92 counties (President Obama won 15 while carrying the state the same year). Daniels got 24 percent of the Democratic vote, 20 percent of African Americans, while winning every single age demographic. This gives him credibility in terms of crossover appeal that not all GOP candidates can bring, but again, his biggest challenge may be the fringes of his own party – especially against someone like Perry.

A political veteran, Daniels served as chief of staff to Senator Richard Lugar, was a senior advisor to President Ronald Reagan, and served President George W. Bush’s budget director before Indianans elected him twice as governor with more votes than anyone who has ever run for office in Indiana. On social issues, Daniels meets the conservative bar in not supporting same sex marriage or even civil unions, opposing stem cell research and allowing abortions only in cases of rape, incest, or life-threatening conditions.


Tim Pawlenty – As governor of Minnesota, Pawlenty has also demonstrated the ability to win broad support across the political spectrum. He is a popular conservative in a liberal-leaning state. Pawlenty can brag that he has been successful in cutting his budget without raising taxes and he showed a lot of political will in in his willingness to cut popular social programs in order to do so.

Pawlenty was on McCain's shortlist for VP and may be tapped again this year if he doesn't get the nomination, though I think that he definitely has the broadest general election appeal in this group and it would mistake to write "T-Paw" off as an also ran. Governor Pawlenty might not have the gravitas of say Rick Perry, but he is articulate and very disarming in the way that he communicates his point, the quality that has been the driving force behind his bi-partisan success.

Pawlenty is pro-life, signed a law requiring the Pledge of Allegiance in schools, has been tough on crime and cut the state's corporate tax rate, formerly one of the highest in the U.S. Overall, he's the kind of conservative who isn't as likely to offend those with differing views, as he hasn't been prone to ramming through his agenda and has known when to throw a bone. Pawlenty's biggest fight with moderates will be his "drill-baby-drill" stance and his biggest challenge with conservatives will be not wearing his conservatism on his sleeve, though his record is solid.


John Thune – The junior Senator from South Dakota became an overnight conservative folk hero when he upset Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004. Thune is a by-the-book conservative and takes the sort of hard stance that the far right loves. You cannot get much more pro-life, pro-corporation, anti-gay, anti-immigration than Senator Thune and there are no real surprises among his positions.

Thune probably faces two real challenges in seeking the nomination. The first is that he is a Senator and you have to go all of the way back to J.F.K. to find one that was successful at this level. In today's age, it's just much more practical to be a governor when running for president. As a governor, you can weigh in on every federal issue without having a pesky voting record outside of your state.

Governors can all say how they would've voted on a particular federal issue – without the burden of getting re-elected, appeasing financial supporters, or trading votes in compromises for projects that are important to their state. Governors speak in broad, idealogical terms when it comes to such things, while Senators too often end up contradicting themselves via the votes they've cast. Like I said, Thune has been solidly conservative, though he did vote for TARP – a major sore spot for the Tea Party types that has already put him on the defensive (he now says the Bush Administration misled him).

It's also one thing to be "pro-business" and another to defend a vote that would have ended subsidies for companies that move U.S. jobs offshore, as Thune did. Senator Thune does not believe in global warming and has voted in favor of drilling and reduced regulation in the energy business at every opportunity, including supporting a law that exempted smoke stacks in gas and oil operations from being subject to mercury regulations. Thune's voting record is littered with fiercely conservative votes across the social, environmental and corporate spectrum.

The next problem is that Thune just isn't as engaging as the other candidates. He may have a record that warms the fire of someone like billionare Charles Koch, but in a strong field of candidates, he just doesn't stand out. Thune  has a good story as a heartlander who grew up in a town of 600, as the son of a hero WWII aviator, but he's also in a very small electoral base and would have to work hard to gain nationwide recognition.

Senator Thune's best asset may be South Dakota's shared border with Iowa, where he is polling relatively well among the state's conservatives. He also has a strong base of well-positioned supporters and has been a fundraising machine, even though he hasn't faced a challenge to his seat. Thune will be a player in the 2012 primary, but in the end I don't see him having the goods to surpass such a strong group of governors, especially as it becomes clear that he doesn't have nearly the crossover potential of a Pawlenty or a Daniels. His best route to the White House would probably be through the Vice Presidency, so keep an eye on him until the ticket is full.


Tune in next week when we take a look at Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Click here to read part one of the series, which includes Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich. Click here to read part three which includes Haley Barbour, Bobby Jindal and Chris Christie.