Possible 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates: Part 3

Part 3 of a special 4-part series

Well we've reviewed the top of the field, yet there are still some true contenders likely to be on stage. This is a crowded class, filled with plausible nominees. My gut tells me that fund raising is going to be the biggest factor, with a couple of candidates pulling way out very early and that being the only thing that thins the herd.

The other factor may be perceived electibility, which was not much of a factor in this year's congressional races, as Republicans boldly nominated some of the most conservative candidates of recent memory. Did they learn a lesson in places like Delaware and Nevada, or will their overall success this year and the rise of the Tea Party inspire them to nominate far right conservatives once thought too radical for the mainstream.

The climate seems like the most favorable one to do so since 1980, when the same Ronald Reagan who'd lost to Gerald Ford in the '76 primary swept through the nomination process and onto a landslide victory over a struggling Democratic incumbent. On the other hand, nominating a very conservative candidate could cost Republicans independent votes and inspire a strong youth turnout, which was absent in 2010. Again, I feel as though the big money might be the one making this decision and there is a lot of green on the far right that might come out strong if it senses a unique opportunity.

Bobby Jindal – The governor of Louisiana was also on the McCain short list in 2008. Known as the wonder kid of the GOP, Jindal's story is enticing. A first-generation American, his family immigrated from Punjab, India. Jindal is an extremely intelligent individual – an intellectual heavyweight that few politicians (or anyone else for that matter) can match brain power with.

Governor Jindal graduated from Brown University at the age of 20 and was accepted to both Harvard Medical and Yale Law. Instead, he studied Political Science at New College Oxford, as a Rhodes Scholar. His thesis was on a "needs based approach to health care."

At 25, Jindal became the youngest Director of Health and Hospitals is Louisiana history. He took a bankrupt Medicaid program and created a giant surplus in just a few years, while drastically improving the state's ranking in just about every measure of health care delivery – a strong bullet point on the resume at present.

Jindal was elected to congress in 2004, after narrowly losing his first run at the governorship the year before. In 2007, Jindal won the Governor race with 54 percent of the vote, inheriting a Katrina-ravaged state in tremendous disarray. Jindal won broad support for his management of Louisiana in the wake of such a crisis and was widely praised for his efficient and effective evacuation before Hurricane Gustav, one of the largest evacuations in American history.

In 2009, Governor Jindal was tapped to give the GOP rebuttal to President Obama's first speech to a joint session of congress, an honor usually bestowed in order to give a perceived rising star a national platform. That didn't go well. Even Republican analysts rated Jindal's speech as somewhere between awful and disastrous and I don't think he's been taken as serious as a potential presidential candidate since.

Jindal slammed the stimulus plan and vowed not to receive funds, though he's since accepted and disbursed billions in his state – a contradiction that has been seen as a big problem for a 2012 candidacy. In all, Jindal has done a good job in building broad support as the chief executive of an incredibly challenging state. Like Tim Pawlenty, Jindal has managed high approval ratings as a conservative leader in a historically liberal state, suggesting he can build cross-party appeal.

Ideologically, Jindal is fiercely conservative. He is as staunchly pro-life as one can be and advocates the teaching of creationism in public schools. He is adamantly opposed to gay marriage, civil unions and embryonic stem cell research. He has voted in favor of energy alternatives, but also to increase domestic drilling and continue subsidies to gas and oil companies.

Jindal is the first Indian-American governor in U.S. history. He was raised Hindu, but converted to catholicism in high school. His real name is Piyush Amrit Jindal. He gave himself the nickname Bobby after his favorite TV character, Bobby Brady. The 800-pound elephant in the room regarding Jindal is whether the elements of the Republican party that had such a difficult time with the name Barrack Hussein Obama and were so confused over the president's religious orientation would accept someone with Jindal's background when there are so many similarly qualified candidates who fit the profile they are clearly most comfortable with.

The biggest trait that separates Jindal from his competition is that if you put him in a room – any room – he's likely to be the smartest person present. That seems like an excellent quality for a president, but history and current polling data suggest otherwise. I would say Jindal is in the bottom half of the pack in terms of his chance at getting the nomination, but will be one of the top contenders for the running mate spot. His vast experience in health care policy will be a major plus, especially if health care reform is still being fought out, which seems likely.

Haley Barbour – Barbour is the governor of Mississippi. He gained national attention during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, but rose to party prominence as RNC chair during the sweeping Republican congressional victory in 1994. The former Republican Governor's Association chair is a well-connected GOP heavyweight. Barbour is considered a definite in terms of running for the nomination.

Only the second Republican elected Governor of Mississippi since reconstruction, Barbour has also demonstrated the ability to make conservative politics play well in a traditionally liberal state, with approval ratings as high as 70 percent. Barbour nonetheless brings significant baggage to the race. A former lobbyist, his firm the BGR Group was ranked as the second most influential lobbying firm in D.C. by Fortune Magazine in 1998, when he was at the helm. It remains one of the most prominent firms in Washington and Barbour continues to profit financially from his position there.

Governor Barbour has drawn criticism for awarding post-Katrina reconstruction contracts to RBG clients in what many see as a clear conflict of interest. He has also been seen as remaining very friendly with the tobacco industry that he was a long time lobbyist for, maintaining the third lowest cigarette tax, despite the fact that Mississippi is the poorest state in the union. He also dismantled a popular anti-youth smoking program that had been in place and was funded by proceeds from a tobacco settlement that the state received.

Barbour is another right-wing conservative without any real moderate stances in terms of abortion, the environment or gay marriage. Like Jindal, Barbour is in the awkward position of having slammed the stimulus only to allow his state to benefit successfully from it, which it seems is quietly becoming a big issue among GOP leadership who see it as a weak spot for potential candidates in 2012.

Barbour has passed one of the strictest tort reform policies in the country and successfully trimmed a giant deficit into the first balanced budget Mississippi had seen in years. Ultimately, there just doesn't seem to be anything that makes him stand out in a crowded field and I don't suspect he'll be able to rise above some of the stronger candidates that don't bear the burden of having gotten rich as a D.C. lobbyist in one of the most decidedly anti-lobbyist environments we've ever seen.

Chris Christie – the governor of New Jersey says he's not running and has been so admament that one tends to believe him, but he is the GOP's man of the moment, a momentum that usually doesn't come around twice. I'm not sure he'll be able to resist the temptation to capitalize on his star rising and if he doesn't run, he could very well be tempted again with the VP role from whoever does win the nomination.

Christie could be a very effective hatchet man in that spot and something tells me that we are going to see more instances of nominees choosing running mates who did not run in the primary. The age of the 24-hour news cycle, the increased length of primary campaigns, and the heightened mudslinging in the early going has made it very awkward in terms of quickly making amends with someone who has done so much to tear you down and then running on a "shared vision." It worked in the old system where primaries were contested largely out of sight, but I think it's more of a challenge today and would not be surprised by that trend, were it to continue.

In that scenario, Christie would be able to serve deeper into his term as governor without the distraction of declaring his intentions and paint it more as a civic duty to answer the nominee's call rather than chasing his own ambitions. Either way, Christie is clearly a popular favorite among Republicans who value his brash, forward speaking style and willingness to unapologetically do what he thinks needs to be done to balance a budget without raising taxes.

In keeping with our theme, Christie is yet another very conservative Republican doing very well in a historically liberal state. The former U.S. attorney defeated Democratic incumbent John Corzine by 3.5 points, a huge win for a Republican candidate over a Democratic incumbent in a state like New Jersey. While in office, Christie has won massive support for his willingness to make painful cuts without raising taxes, while standing up to Democratic mainstays like the teacher's union.

Like Barbour, Christie is also a former lobbyist and brings the accompanying baggage. Christie, who has made a theme of fighting corruption, lobbied on behalf of the Securities Industry Association not to include securities fraud under New Jersey's consumer fraud act. As a U.S. Attorney, he was criticized for creating deferred prosecution agreements and awarding multi-million dollar, no-bid contracts to friends and supporters whose law firms were appointed as federal monitors in the cases, including a very lucrative one to a former fellow U.S. attorney who declined to prosecute Christie's brother in 2005, ironically, in a securities fraud case.

Christie also got into hot water during his gubernatorial campaign when it was revealed that he'd failed to disclose a $46,000 loan to an employee while serving as a U.S. attorney (or the $500 monthly vig that he charged her) on two year's worth of tax returns or even his candidate financial disclosure form while running for governor. For a robust gentleman from New Jersey who once had to recuse himself from a case because he was the step-nephew of a Genovese Crime Family member on trial for aiding the flight of a fugitive... well let's just say the Tony Soprano jokes write themselves.

Christie's big difference from other potential candidates is his slight moderation -- a contrast that seems decidedly stark in this particular crop of candidates. He checks most of the blocks for conservatives, but is more flexible on social issues than the others we've seen. He's pro-life, though he said it wasn't something he'd "try to force down people's throats as governor." He does not believe in gay marriage, but is OK with civil unions. Christie favors tax cuts, but only when the "fiscal house is in order." In all, he might connect better with moderates, independents or disenfranchised Democrats than other potential 2012 GOP candidates – again making him a viable choice to balance a ticket on the bottom half.

Tune in next week when we'll wrap up the series with a look at some of the dark horse candidates who could shake things up in the early going, including last year's sleeper, Congressman Ron Paul.

Possible 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates Part 1

Possible 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates Part 2