Border Crisis Could be an Albatross for Dems in 2024

Democrats have undoubtedly benefited from broad opposition to Republican policies aimed at restricting women's reproductive freedoms in the post-Dobbs era. The party is openly counting on the continued backlash to propel its chances in 2024. However, as the border crisis deepens and record numbers of migrants cross into the country, Democrats, especially President Biden, could face a similar bipartisan backlash come November.

For a moment, it looked as if President Biden's desperate effort to get Congress to come to the table on more aid for Ukraine before the end of 2023 could force a compromise on immigration. Yet, in a somewhat predictable fashion, Republicans could not coalesce as a party and ultimately seemed more interested in exploiting frustration over the issue in November than working toward anything that could be seen as a victory for Biden.

"Let me tell you, I'm not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden's approval rating," Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX) told CNN this week. "I will not help the Democrats try to improve this man’s dismal approval ratings. I'm not going to do it. Why would I?"

Nehls may have been saying the quiet part out loud, but the ethos behind this sort of statement has become routine in Washington for Republicans who prefer pontification over policy-making. Our border crisis is a complex issue with numerous facets, and no simple solution exists. Our archaic pathway for legal immigration is obsolete for the needs of our 21st-century economy and incentivizes people to either cross the border illegally or overstay temporary visas. Our asylum process has morphed from its intended purpose and desperately needs to be overhauled from the foundation up. However, the sort of systemic reforms needed to address those matters are always dead on arrival due to both hyperpartisanship in D.C. and the deep political divisions among Americans that special interests have become dangerously adept at exploiting.

Both sides have been in talks for several weeks, but very little has been revealed thus far regarding what has been discussed or what issues are on the table. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has repeatedly asserted that the passage of H.R. 2 (Secure the Border Act) is a must-have for House Republicans if they are to come to the table. The legislation would provide funding for expanding the border wall and hiring more border patrol agents, prevent Customs and Border Protection agents from processing immigrants, and put further restrictions on applying for asylum. The Biden administration has already shown an openness toward border wall expansion. Given its role in the current crisis, it should be open to reforming the asylum process. That said, the administration has called H.R. 2 a non-starter, suggesting that the House position could tank a compromise that Senate Republicans seem open to.

Border patrol encountered more than 225,000 migrants along the US-Mexico border in December, the highest monthly count since 2000. The year 2023 was the second year in a row that illegal crossings have been over 2 million, with nearly half (900,000) coming via asylum seekers. The expansion of asylum eligibility has created a dynamic in which migrants cross the border illegally and, rather than getting sent back if they are caught, declare themselves asylum seekers. At that point, they become entitled to two court hearings and can stay in the country legally until their cases are adjudicated. This process currently takes several years per case because of the massive backlog of asylum cases. Meanwhile, those with slim chances of achieving asylum can easily disappear into the underground economy.

The U.S. has experienced record-low unemployment in recent years and desperately needs targeted, skilled immigrants. Canada is actually beating us in legal immigration, partly because they have a modernized process and partly because they share only one border, and it’s with the U.S., while the only place close to its northern border is Greenland, which does not contain a large population attempting to flee. The U.S. faces an additional challenge in which Mexico is unequipped to deal with the hordes of South American refugees fleeing to the U.S. through its country and rightfully feels as though it should not use its much more limited resources to police what is essentially an American problem.

If the U.S. were serious about solving the immigration crisis, we would reform legal immigration to more quickly process skilled immigrants who will benefit our economy, severely restrict the existing asylum process (and possibly pause it while the courts work through the existing backlog with funding for more courts and judges), mandate employer verification with severe penalties for failing to comply, and work with Mexico to patrol its much narrower southern border where we could be far more successful at preventing the mass migration from South America. None of those things seem to be part of the current conversation.

Democrats can certainly argue that Republicans are hypocritical on the issue or are not earnest in their efforts beyond seeking popular, if far less effective, policies that they feel will benefit their side at the ballot box (i.e., the southern border wall). That said, Biden will be running as the incumbent. As long as Republicans can hold press conferences on the Rio Grande while migrants illegally cross the border in real time and videos of massive caravans illegally crossing continue to flood the internet, this is going to be seen as his problem. What’s more, tying it to aid to Ukraine, which has become increasingly unpopular with voters, will just give his opponents one more opportunity to ask why the U.S. is spending so much on other countries’ problems instead of investing in domestic issues. 

When it comes to politics and elections, perception is reality. Biden needs to detach immigration reform from aid to Ukraine and use the bully pulpit of the presidency to loudly call for the kind of reforms that will actually reduce the crisis. He should go down to the border and point at the same obvious mess that Republicans are highlighting while calling on them to compromise on a plan that would actually have a noticeable impact. While he’s at it, he could take a look at how poorly he is currently polling with Hispanics and rethink the antiquated notion that it is a political albatross to call for hardline immigration reform or campaign on the fact that his administration, like President Obama’s, deported more illegal immigrants than Trump’s.

If he does none of this, November may come down to what a finicky electorate is more concerned about—abortion rights or crime and illegal immigration. The former worked for Dems in the midterms and special elections held since Dobbs, but I would not count on it being enough come November when Biden, who is experiencing record-low polling across the board, will actually be on the ballot.

Dennis "Mitch" Maley is an editor and columnist for The Bradenton Times and the host of our weekly podcast. With over two decades of experience as a journalist, he has covered Manatee County government since 2010. He is a graduate of Shippensburg University and later served as a Captain in the U.S. Army. Click here for his bio. His 2016 short story collection, Casting Shadows, was recently reissued and is available here.