Film Critic Jared Rasic's Oscar Predictions

In what feels like one of the most hotly contested Oscar races in recent memory, I’m finding myself more excited for the 98th Annual Academy Awards than I have any right to be. Don’t get me wrong, the ceremony itself will likely be overlong and filled with awkward moments, cringey speeches and performative humanitarianism. But with Conan O’Brien hosting and coming off one of the finest years for film of the last 15 years, these Oscars feel like they could shape the cinematic landscape for the next 15.

Plus, with Paramount (and David Ellison in particular) nearly ready to acquire Warner Bros., we’re looking at a future that doesn’t just shake up streaming and probably violate a few antitrust laws, but puts two film studios, three television studios, two streaming platforms and a ton of cable (and news) networks under the same umbrella. That much media all owned by the same person has demonstrably proven to be bad, so with the future of film (and humanity in general) feeling so nebulous right now, I’m happy to focus on something as simple as a wonderful year at the movies.

With that said, here are my predictions for what will win at the 98th Annual Academy Awards, plus what I think should win instead. Here we go:

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET - Marty Supreme

LEONARDO DICAPRIO - One Battle after Another

ETHAN HAWKE - Blue Moon

MICHAEL B. JORDAN - Sinners

WAGNER MOURA - The Secret Agent

Who will win: Two weeks ago, I would have said Chalamet had this one won, but he’s been a desperate weirdo in his press tour, so now I think Michael B. Jordan might take it. He has momentum right now.

Who should win: Each one of these performances is an all-timer, but Hawke’s work broke my heart and DiCaprio proved once again that he gets better with every performance. Still, I would be so happy for Jordan to take it.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

BENICIO DEL TORO - One Battle after Another

JACOB ELORDI - Frankenstein

DELROY LINDO - Sinners

SEAN PENN - One Battle after Another

STELLAN SKARSGÅRD - Sentimental Value

Who will win: This is a tough one, but I think Skarsgard might take it, with Penn as a possible upset.

Who should win: Del Toro’s character in “One Battle After Another” is just so iconic, but Lindo crafts such a delicately beautiful performance in “Sinners.” See what I mean? This year was filled with so much good work.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

JESSIE BUCKLEY - Hamnet

ROSE BYRNE - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

KATE HUDSON - Song Sung Blue

RENATE REINSVE - Sentimental Value

EMMA STONE - Bugonia

Who will win: Buckley has this on lock. She’s been a chameleonic actress for years and is finally getting the attention she has earned.

Who should win: As happy as I would be for Buckley to get this, I found Byrne’s devastating and complex work in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” the most remarkable. She added so much humanity to a character that could have been unbearable.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

ELLE FANNING - Sentimental Value

INGA IBSDOTTER LILLEAAS - Sentimental Value

AMY MADIGAN - Weapons

WUNMI MOSAKU - Sinners

TEYANA TAYLOR - One Battle after Another

Who will win: I think Taylor shows up in “One Battle” like an immediate movie star. She’s a force of nature that is impossible to look away from.

Who should win: As much as I love Madigan's creepily hilarious turn in “Weapons,” I think Taylor lights the screen on fire in just a few short minutes.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

ARCO - Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman

ELIO - Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm

KPOP DEMON HUNTERS - Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong

LITTLE AMÉLIE OR THE CHARACTER OF RAIN - Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon

ZOOTOPIA 2 - Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino

Who will win: “KPop Demon Hunters” has won this award all season, and I can’t see it losing here. It’s a very fun movie with jaw-dropping animation, so I get it.

Who should win: “Arco” has three or four moments I’ve never seen in a film before, animated or otherwise. Truly a work of boundless imagination.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

BUTTERFLY - Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens

FOREVERGREEN - Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears

THE GIRL WHO CRIED PEARLS - Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski

RETIREMENT PLAN - John Kelly and Andrew Freedman

THE THREE SISTERS - Konstantin Bronzit

Who will win: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” is stunningly emotive and gorgeously realized.

Who should win: I’m in love with “Retirement Plan” and I don’t care who knows it.

CASTING

HAMNET - Nina Gold

MARTY SUPREME - Jennifer Venditti

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - Cassandra Kulukundis

THE SECRET AGENT - Gabriel Domingues

SINNERS - Francine Maisler

Who will win: I really hope it’s Maisler for “Sinners” because I can’t imagine anyone else playing those roles.

Who should win: “Sentimental Value” should win since all four lead actors are up for awards, but I’m still pulling for “Sinners.”

CINEMATOGRAPHY

FRANKENSTEIN - Dan Laustsen

MARTY SUPREME - Darius Khondji

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - Michael Bauman

SINNERS - Autumn Durald Arkapaw

TRAIN DREAMS - Adolpho Veloso

Who will win: Akrapaw is a genius who must be protected at all costs. Her work on “Sinners” is one of the highlights of the entire film.

Who should win: Arkapaw should win, but if Veloso won for his gorgeous summoning of the ghosts of the Pacific Northwest in “Train Dreams,” I would still be very happy.

COSTUME DESIGN

AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH - Deborah L. Scott

FRANKENSTEIN - Kate Hawley

HAMNET - Malgosia Turzanska

MARTY SUPREME - Miyako Bellizzi

SINNERS - Ruth E. Carter

Who will win: Carter recreates the 1930’s Mississippi delta flawlessly while also bringing forth decades of black culture alongside it. She designs like a time traveler, and I’m not sure any of us realize how astonishing her work here is.

Who should win: Carter. No contest. She speaks for history.

DIRECTING

HAMNET - Chloé Zhao

MARTY SUPREME - Josh Safdie

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - Paul Thomas Anderson

SENTIMENTAL VALUE - Joachim Trier

SINNERS - Ryan Coogler

Who will win: This is a race between Coogler and PTA and I think Anderson might take it only because he made a politically charged action comedy that hit at the perfect time (and he made it look easy).

Who should win: I like “One Battle After Another” just slightly more as a film, but I’m rooting for Coogler and “Sinners” as a work of art because it’s what my heart tells me to do.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM

THE ALABAMA SOLUTION - Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman

COME SEE ME IN THE GOOD LIGHT - Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen

CUTTING THROUGH ROCKS - Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni

MR. NOBODY AGAINST PUTIN - David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber and Alžběta Karásková

THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR - Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee

Who will win: All the nominees are strong, but “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” feels so important and timely in how it looks at propaganda and the importance of whistleblowers.

Who should win: “Come and See Me in the Good Light” is a life- and death-affirming poem that I will never stop thinking about.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM

ALL THE EMPTY ROOMS - Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

ARMED ONLY WITH A CAMERA: THE LIFE AND DEATH OF BRENT RENAUD - Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo

CHILDREN NO MORE: "WERE AND ARE GONE - Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins

THE DEVIL IS BUSY - Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir

PERFECTLY A STRANGENESS - Alison McAlpine

Who will win: “The Devil is Busy” feels timely and important, plus with the cinéma vérité style of filmmaking, the documentary feels honest and immediate. This hits hard and leaves a mark, and with the current attack on women’s reproductive rights, it’s more crucial than ever.

Who should win: As much as I love “Perfectly A Strangeness,” I think “The Devil is Busy” needs to be seen by everyone.

FILM EDITING

F1 - Stephen Mirrione

MARTY SUPREME - Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - Andy Jurgensen

SENTIMENTAL VALUE - Olivier Bugge Coutté

SINNERS - Michael P. Shawver

Who will win: This is another difficult choice because the editing is key to each film’s tone, but I think “Marty Supreme” is showier and will take it for that reason.

Who should win: “One Battle After Another” is a 162-minute film that feels like it’s 90. The editing is a big part of why. This should be the clear winner.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

BRAZIL - The Secret Agent

FRANCE - It Was Just an Accident

NORWAY - Sentimental Value

SPAIN - Sirāt

TUNISIA - The Voice of Hind Rajab

Who will win: It’s a race between “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value.” Just because it has more momentum, I would give it to “The Secret Agent.”

Who should win: “The Voice of Hind Rajab” is about the genocide in Gaza that is still happening. This should win because everyone on earth should watch it. I guarantee this film will be taught in schools in the future.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

BUTCHER'S STAIN - Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi

A FRIEND OF DOROTHY - Lee Knight and James Dean

JANE AUSTEN'S PERIOD DRAMA - Julia Aks and Steve Pinder

THE SINGERS - Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt

TWO PEOPLE EXCHANGING SALIVA - Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

Who will win: “The Butcher’s Stain” is the most serious and topical of the nominees, so that might give it the edge.

Who should win: I find “The Singers” the most entertaining, but “Two People Exchanging Saliva” feels like the work of a visionary filmmaking team that all completely understood the assignment. “Saliva” takes it for me, but I don’t think it has a chance.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

FRANKENSTEIN - Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey

KOKUHO - Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu

SINNERS - Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry

THE SMASHING MACHINE - Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjorn Rehbein

THE UGLY STEPSISTER - Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Who will win: “Sinners” all the way. Their work transported audiences to another time and place.

Who should win: “Sinners.” Smoke and Stack look so good.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

BUGONIA - Jerskin Fendrix

FRANKENSTEIN - Alexandre Desplat

HAMNET - Max Richter

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - Jonny Greenwood

SINNERS - Ludwig Göransson

Who will win: Göransson’s blues-soaked score is timeless and carries the entire film along with Arkapaw’s cinematography. His music is grimy, sweaty, sexy and I’m here for it.

Who should win: As much as I love Greenwood, Goransson deserves this one all the way.

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

DEAR ME - from Diane Warren: Relentless; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

GOLDEN - from KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park

I LIED TO YOU - from Sinners; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson

SWEET DREAMS OF JOY - from Viva Verdi!; Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike

TRAIN DREAMS - from Train Dreams; Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave

Who will win: As much as I want it to be “Sinners” or “Train Dreams,” I think “KPop Demon Hunters” will take it.

Who should win: Nick Cave’s lyrics in “Train Dreams” broke me, but if “Sinners” won, I would be ecstatic.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

FRANKENSTEIN - Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau

HAMNET - Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton

MARTY SUPREME - Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino

SINNERS - Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne

Who will win: I think “Marty Supreme” has this won simply for how gritty and authentic the recreation of 1950s New York looks. There are just so many fascinating textures and hidden corners.

Who should win: “Hamnet” transported me to the Globe Theater to see a Shakespeare play. It wins my heart.

SOUND

F1 - Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta

FRANKENSTEIN - Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor

SINNERS - Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker

SIRĀT - Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas

Who will win: “Sinners” finds a beautiful balance between the quiet nights of the rural South and a sweaty party at a new juke joint.

Who should win: “Sinners.” Every detail is there.

VISUAL EFFECTS

AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett

F1 - Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson

JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH - David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould

THE LOST BUS - Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin

SINNERS - Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean

Who will win: As much as I’m not in love with the movies, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is groundbreaking in so many different ways.

Who should win: “Avatar.” They’re a decade ahead of everyone else.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

BUGONIA - Will Tracy

FRANKENSTEIN - Guillermo del Toro

HAMNET - Chloé Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - Paul Thomas Anderson

TRAIN DREAMS - Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

Who will win: Anderson constructed “One Battle After Another” as a timely political thriller, a stoner comedy and a buddy action movie simultaneously. His work here won’t be fully appreciated for a few decades, even if he wins the Oscar.

Who should win: Anderson should win, but the screenplay for “Train Dreams” is one of the most beautiful pieces of writing of the last 25 years. It should also win. Can they both win, please?

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

BLUE MOON - Robert Kaplow

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT - Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators - Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian

MARTY SUPREME - Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie

SENTIMENTAL VALUE - Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

SINNERS - Ryan Coogler

Who will win: This one is impossible to guess. “Sentimental Value” and “Sinners” have momentum and “Marty Supreme” has the critical love. I think “Sinners” takes it in an upset.

Who should win: The script for “Blue Moon” absolutely sings with brilliance and humor, but “Sinners” should win simply for how beautifully Coogler blends genres and layers in a hundred years of thematic power, depth and rage.

BEST PICTURE

BUGONIA - Ed Guiney & Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone and Lars Knudsen, producers

F1 - Chad Oman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski and Jerry Bruckheimer, producers

FRANKENSTEIN - Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Scott Stuber, producers

HAMNET - Liza Marshall, Pippa Harris, Nicolas Gonda, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, producers

MARTY SUPREME - Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas and Timothée Chalamet, producers

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER - Adam Somner, Sara Murphy and Paul Thomas Anderson, producers

THE SECRET AGENT - Emilie Lesclaux, producer

SENTIMENTAL VALUE - Maria Ekerhovd and Andrea Berentsen Ottmar, producers

SINNERS - Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian and Ryan Coogler, producers

TRAIN DREAMS - Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Will Janowitz, Ashley Schlaifer and Michael Heimler, producers

Who will win: This is a race between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” (with “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value” acting as possible spoilers). “One Battle” will win it because of its timeliness. The only reason “Sinners” won’t win is that the Academy historically doesn’t award horror movies.

Who should win: The more I watch these movies over and over, I think “Train Dreams” is my favorite—not necessarily the best, but I like what it says about life and existence. It’s sweetly and gently profound in ways I’m not sure many movies have the patience to attempt.