Redistributing Up: Trump’s Big Bill is an Economic and Climate Disaster

On May 22, I despaired at the news that House Republicans had passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” When Trump won in November, I’d hoped congressional Republicans might serve as an essential check on his worst impulses—that they would provide a bulwark of real conservatism. Surely there had to be a handful who wouldn’t sell their souls? I was wrong. It turns out they believe in the free market, reducing the deficit, and supporting the American working class only when a Democrat is president.

Now the Senate is on the verge of passing the most disastrous bill in recent history. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a 940-page mega-bill aimed at something wildly new for Republicans: wealth redistribution and government control of markets. Medicaid and SNAP will be cut by nearly a trillion dollars to pay for tax cuts, which overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy. More than 10 million people are expected to lose Medicaid coverage. Meanwhile, the massive cost of the tax cuts will balloon the national debt by at least $3 trillion—and potentially much more. In what’s been dubbed “reverse socialism,” the legislation promises the largest transfer of wealth from the working class to the rich in American history.

Numerous articles have been published discussing this intent. Medicaid, SNAP, and taxes have become flashpoints of debate. But one important aspect of the bill has gone virtually unnoticed: wealth redistribution via the economic impacts of climate change.

Follow the Money

The fossil fuel industry has long held massive influence over the U.S. political system. They have the resources to churn out New York Times pieces and turn the Wall Street Journal’s opinion page into a tinfoil-hat club of climate deniers. They’ve bought and paid for enough elected officials to sink any legislation intended to make their industry more accountable. And now, like so many wealthy interests, their influence is reaching unprecedented levels. During last year’s campaign, Trump requested the fossil fuel industry give him $1 billion, promising in return to gut the nation’s environmental protections. Ultimately, the industry coughed up nearly $100 million. It’s bribery, but it’s perfectly legal, thanks to the 2010 Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United v. FEC, which declared that money is speech and corporations are people.

The post-Citizens United world has been one of gridlock and corruption, where special interests shoot down any legislation that might benefit the public while threatening their own bottom line. It was virtually a miracle in 2022 that such a pivotal piece of legislation as the Inflation Reduction Act passed into law. The IRA is a sweeping infrastructure and environmental project, the largest climate achievement in U.S. history. It managed this by creating a growth-oriented solution to decarbonization. Rather than regulation, the IRA focuses on incentives and tax breaks for renewable energy. It’s been hailed for tying capitalism, economic strength, and environmentalism into an effective framework. This market-oriented approach is where the IRA’s brilliance lies: it’s a carrot, not a stick. 

Polluting industries weren’t happy about booming production of cheap, clean energy. Worst of all, renewables are increasingly outcompeting fossil fuels in the free market. This, of course, is why they flooded the campaigns of Trump and congressional Republicans with cash. True to his word, Trump has slashed rules that restricted soot, smog, mercury, and arsenic pollution. He’s opened nearly 60 million acres of America’s last pristine forests to destruction. Oil giants even got a special exception from the disastrous “Liberation Day” tariffs. 

The costs are stark. Trump's EPA rollbacks will cause the deaths of thousands of Americans due to increased air pollution. Director of the CDC’s National Center for Environmental Health under President George W. Bush, Howard Frumkin, told the Associated Press, “Because of these regulatory rollbacks and funding cuts, Americans will die needlessly.” A former Biden administration official, K. Sabeel Rahman, concurred, telling the AP that “tens of thousands of people will lose their lives.” These actions were just the warm-up; the Big Bill is the endgame. Not only does it kill the IRA, but it reshapes the entire energy industry to consolidate wealth at the top—while endangering everyone else.

“Reverse Socialism”

The Big Bill’s energy strategy is simple: its solution to Trump’s imagined “energy crisis” is to end the IRA, raising taxes on the cheapest forms of energy, revoking their funding, and derailing projects across the country. Then it turns around and gives billions in government handouts to expensive, polluting fossil fuels through tax breaks, reduced royalties for drilling on public land, and massive subsidies. It’s an effort to reshape the market in a disastrous way. Nearly a million jobs could be lost, while energy prices will rise, potentially by hundreds of dollars per household. 

The longer-term impacts are even more sinister, crystallizing the intent of wealth redistribution. But how, you ask, is money being transferred? For those billions in handouts to Big Oil (both direct and through crippling the renewable energy sector), citizens pay in the damage wrought by planet-warming emissions. It’s a clever business model: you can’t tie any one hurricane or fire to any one company’s emissions. They reap the profits while passing on the cost to everyday Americans. We pay through skyrocketing insurance premiums; through destruction of our communities and heritage; through lost homes and livelihoods; and ultimately with our lives. Last year, all of this added up to $1 trillion, a sizable chunk of America’s GDP. Don’t expect that number to go down in coming years.

Science suggests the economic impact of carbon emissions is $185 per ton. The Big Bill will likely result in an additional 500 million tons of carbon emissions by 2030, adding up to $92.5 billion in damages over the next five years. That’s $270 per American. The cost won’t be evenly distributed, though: people in coastal areas like ours will pay far more.

I hesitate to give the Big Bill’s climate impacts a dollar value, because the consequences are so much more profound. Dollars can’t reflect the pain of ravaged communities, the destruction of places like Annie’s Bait and Tackle or Snead Island Crab House, the natural ecosystems and wildlife species snuffed out forever, and the families shattered by tragedies. None of this will show up in congressional budget reports. This is upward wealth redistribution in its most disquieting form: not the upward transfer of assets (though climate change does that, too), but the erosion of everything we hold dear for the profits of a few.

Florida, of course, has already solved climate change. All we had to do was ban the term. As usual, President Trump is following Florida’s lead, with his own special twist. How do we avoid facing the ravages of his Big Bill? Simply get rid of the science that would track the damage. 

Brice Claypoole is a 17-year-old environmental advocate based in Sarasota, Florida. He runs the nonpartisan youth advocacy club Kids for Clean Water. He publishes the blog The Kid Who Cares, focused on nature, conservation, and local politics.