Bush Courts Disaffected Youth

In March I drove to Miami to meet Jeb Bush, Jr., 34, who was hosting a Right To Rise Young Professionals reception at the Gale Hotel Rooftop in South Beach. I wanted to ask him about his dad’s strategy to get the youth vote in 2016.

The reception was a fundraiser; the lowest you could donate was $100; there was about 70 people there; most gave $500 and a handful contributed $2,500 each. The money would go to former Florida Governor Jeb Bush’s Right To Rise Super PAC–not the Right To Rise Leadership PAC, nor Right To Rise Policy Solutions–and it’s important to be precise about these things, for legal reasons, but if you could forget about all that the Gale Hotel Rooftop was a cool scene. The place was retro, Tropical Art Deco, and positioned on the corner of 17th & Collins Avenue, in South Beach, which is a good place to go. It was Spring Break, and you could look down from atop the Gale and see all the neon people in their fun party on the sidewalk floating about gaily and falling drunkenly chasing one another into the coming night.

When I arrived for the general reception the rooftop looked all but empty. There were three young men and a woman standing at the bar. Hotel staff was bustling around. A voice was coming through the P.A. system–a speech was being given; the VIP pre-party was still underway on the upper deck, where the swimming pool was, and the young professionals at the bar before me were the lonely, low-dollar donors. I struck up a conversation with one of them. His name was Duncan Blount. Blount told me he used to work in politics, "on Bush-Cheney, for a little bit, campaign things,“ but was now an investment analyst.

"I don’t really pay attention to politics anymore,“ he said. "I always vote R.’“

Blount said he thinks Bush can draw young people over from the middle by not pushing conservative social issues.

"I think that’s the biggest thing,“ he said, "because there’s so many people with the same mindset as me, and the Republicans who care will never vote Democrat.“

A short while later the crowd gathered around the dancefloor for a speech from one of the co-chairs. Then Hispanic Jeb Bush, Jr. got on the microphone, looking very "Miami“ in a Tommy Bahama-style shirt and loose-fitting khaki pants. Bush Jr. said it was a great event, and noted tonight was the fifth and last of a, "kind of, young professionals Ôswing’ for the Right To Rise PAC.“

"If you all haven’t heard,“ he said, "Dad is seriously considering the possibility of running for president of the United States.“

The crowd whooped.

"And if he does do that, he’s gonna reach out to a lot of Hispanics and a lot of young people–folks that haven’t been engaged in politics before, or folks who were even Democrats in the past.“

Bush Jr. proceeded to pitch his father to the donors.

"There’s no harder-working man . . .“

"I can’t give you any numbers,“ Bush Jr. said, referring to the money Right To Rise had already raised, “but they’re gonna be impressive, and they’re gonna excite a lot of people.“

Then there was a Q. & A. that addressed Governor Bush’s policies. Before getting into it, Jeb Jr. said his dad loves Polo clothing, is a big reader, and "his favorite movie is Talladega Nights“–a 2006 comedy starring Will Ferrell as a NASCAR driver.

(Early into the Q. & A. it became apparent that this was more than a routine update on talking points; this was a map of Bush’s strategy for new voter engagement. I was among bundlers.)

The first question was immigration: "He was opening his heart, just being honest,“ Jeb Jr. said, in regard to his father’s speech about illegal border crossings being an "act of love,“ and "not a felony.“ Jeb Jr. suggested it would be "helpful with the base“ to "start messaging“ immigration reform as an economic issue–“not that we’re being compassionate about it.“

On health care: "We have certain folks in the [Republican] Party who just want to totally blow up [Obamacare] and eliminate everything.“ The problem with that, Jeb Jr. said, is some parts of Obamacare are good.

Jeb Jr. called on me to ask a question. I said, "If your dad were elected president, do you think he would pose a threat to social rights that are important to millennials, such as same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization, in states where it’s legal?“ Jeb Jr. announced my question. He said, "I think the bottom line is, for gay marriage, we need to leave it to the states and let the courts figure it out, which is exactly what’s happening. But that traditional marriage issue–he’s not changing. Dad’s not gonna flip-flop on that.“

I said, "But do you think he would try to stop it?“

"No,“ Jeb Jr. said, "I don’t think so.“

Someone asked how the governor would go about confronting ISIS. Jeb Jr. said his dad "probably has a better perspective on this than almost anyone.“

What would Dad do?

"Go get Ôem–not that that’s his official response.“

This drew a big laugh.

Jeb Jr. went on. Someone interrupted, “Hey Jeb! Who’s your dad got in his bracket?“–and the policy Q. & A. slipped into college basketball chatter. The Gale Hotel Rooftop was full of laughter. The crowd gave it up for Jeb Jr. One of the other hosts announced that everyone could stay in the loop by texting "R-I-S-E, in all caps,“ to a given phone number. The radio came back on and I stepped off to the side. The ukulele version of "Somewhere Over The Rainbow / What A Wonderful World“ played through the speakers. It was nice on the roof.

"The Young Outsiders today are very different, as they share the GOP base’s deep skepticism of government programs, but favor a more limited foreign policy, and hold decidedly liberal social views.“
–Pew Research Center, 2014

"Republicans don’t need to win the youth vote outright, they just need to kind of lose it less.“
–John Della Volpe, Polling Director, Harvard Institute of Politics, 2014

On Cinco de Mayo I signed onto Facebook and Jeb Bush was in my mini-feed. It was a 54-second video of Bush speaking Spanish. He was in a factory and there were English subtitles. He was saying "ÁFeliz Cinco de Mayo!“ to U.S. Hispanics, and especially to "our fellow friends of Mexican origin“–but also to everyone. Bush said it was "an honorable date, when Mexico our neighbor bravely defended itself from a foreign intervention.“

In America, Bush said, the holiday is one to "recognize and celebrate“ U.S. and Mexico relations, and the "great contributions of the Mexican-American community.“ Bush mentioned his wife Columbo, who is a naturalized Mexican immigrant, and noted the deep "respect and affection“ he has "for our neighbors.“ I watched the video many times. Bush’s Spanish sounded good. It looked like a polite, but pointed gesture of diplomacy made with a domestic objective. The immigration-overhaul reform policy Bush has proposed as his trademark stance is an important bridge on the route he’s taking to 2016. Bush has been doing these bilingual social media posts all year.

On January 6th, Bush launched two political action committees on the same day, both titled Right To Rise, to begin exploring, "the possibility of running for president.“ This was a bold move. It was like Bush chucked a lightning bolt at Capitol Hill from his new headquarters in Tallahassee, to mark the start of 2016 campaign preseason. It didn’t matter that Bush hadn’t entered the presidential race. In Right To Rise, Bush created a polymorphous political brand that would allow him to lay the groundwork for a big White House run, and with plenty of options.

In February Bush hit the road for a national Right To Rise Super-PAC fundraising tour, of 60 U.S. cities. It was all speech-giving and Instagrams, and accumulating millions of dollars that Bush would use to establish political alliances through donations to Republican candidates. It was an expensive trip. Travel costs were covered by the Right To Rise Leadership PAC. And this was all very public. It was happening when Bush published his online database of emails, and later, when the marijuana non-controversy broke.

Bush owned up to smoking weed in high school and nobody cared; and no doubt this response was considered and greenlighted by a team of top-notch consultants, like those on staff at Right To Rise Policy Solutions–the branch of the brand that is the vital organ in orchestrating Bush’s less implicit plan of engineering a new coalition of progressives and moderates as a voting force for the Republican Party. Bush thinks this is the way to put the GOP back in the White House. It’s an experiment, conductible only in the Citizens-United-environment of today’s big-dollar campaign finance world. Bush might only get one chance at this, so it’s interesting to consider what he’s reacting to.

Last year, around the November midterms, there was a lot of talk about the millennial generation. The theme was disaffection. Recent polling had debunked the notion that Barack Obama’s repeated success with young voters meant the Democratic Party had the demographic locked down. The 18 to 29-year old bloc now presented a significant swing for upcoming elections. They didn’t turn out last year, which doesn’t matter here because there wasn’t any reason to expect them to; midterm participation is low for all demographics. But the youth did give some interesting numbers from outside the box.

Polling from Harvard Institute of Politics found more than half of voters this age refused party affiliation; 60 percent disapproved of congressional Democrats; 72 percent disapproved of congressional Republicans; 56 percent blamed both parties and the president for Washington gridlock; and 53 percent said they would recall and replace all 535 members of Congress immediately, "tomorrow.“

And they really would. The bloc is patriotic and wants in. This is the new youth vote. They are social libertarians, but on economic policy are open-minded. They fit the media narrative of unsure, unaffiliated, disengaged and disillusioned post 9-11 people, whose generation is the biggest and most educated, yet largely living at home, due to the stalled economy. In March, The New York Times reported "the so-called millennials“ to have been, "besieged by the recession and buried in student loan debt,“ and so, "largely lacked the financial wherewithal to buy their own homes.“ They are disaffected, and Bush is the only one pursuing them–properly, by responding to the research.

The same week Bush launched Right to Rise, Fusion.net published a national survey of 1,000 millennials’ views on the candidates and voting. 91 percent said they will likely vote for president in 2016, and more than half of those were "absolutely certain“ of it. On party identification, Democrats beat Republicans 29 - 22; not surprisingly, 46 percent of voters identified as Independents–most of these were moderates, and liberals beat conservatives by 10 points. If the 2016 election had been held the day of the survey, a bulging 48 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while only 35 percent said Republican. 17 percent said, "Don’t know.“

Bush would be going for the Don’t-knows–and especially the 24 percent of moderates among them. In this hypothetical election, Bush could beat the Democrat by 4 points, if he got the entire bloc of Don’t-knows. It would be 52-to-48, Republican. A long shot. But in real life, Bush had 18 months to make or break his relationship with young voters, and he still has 13. This reinforces his odds. To drive it home, Bush will need to reflect a kind of general responsiveness that gives an impression of anti-gridlock. This could work. What won’t work is the conservative-libertarian, Rand Paul approach.

Paul shines a guiding light to the right that sometimes blurs left but nonetheless yields narrow appeal. Bush, on the other hand, has developed the persona of a wealthy businessman, who follows sports and has no real convictions, and occasionally can be coaxed into smoking marijuana at dinner parties. Bush’s gig is more broadly attractive. The GOP base is fine with it, and millennials, especially the younger ones, likely will be too. Every policy move Bush has made since December has been part of the brazen, yet delicate effort to combine these forces, and become their mascot-candidate.

But focusing on the youth, because the base is an anchor that only ties to dependable vessels: Unlike Mitt Romney in 2012, Bush is not waiting to get through the primaries to go after millennials. Instead, he is replacing conservatives with them. Bush realizes their power and knows getting his share will be crucial to beating a Democrat in the general election.

With this in mind, Bush has been quietly appealing to millennials’ social-libertarian inclinations all yea–not only with the big foot down for immigration reform but also with subtle, reasonable stances taken on same-sex marriage and marijuana legalization. In the process, Bush has burned many conservatives–but if he can attract enough millennials to get through the primaries, Bush suspects the far right will return for the general election, to vote against the Democrat. And that would put Bush on the Republican ticket with the entire right behind him, plus a millennial surplus. It's a big gamble, but Bush has already proven he can afford it. And he has a lot to work with.

For instance, any appeal to Latinos would score points with millennials, because the generation champions diversity. Then, young Latinos are already expected to turn out in 2016; young people respond well to digital outreach in general–so theoretically, Bush’s bilingual social media campaign is gold. It would have strong appeal for the whole bloc and work twice as well with the Hispanic subset. Bush is good at the internet–and he needs to be to make first contact, and there is that opportunity. While millennials have a history with the Democratic Party, the oldest among them aren’t who Bush is really going for. In fact, the elders of the generation are outnumbered.

"It’s no longer the minority of 18 to 29-year-old voters who came of age during Obama in 2008,“ said John Della Volpe, Polling Director for Harvard Institute Of Politics. Della Volpe’s Public Opinion Project has accurately predicted youth turnout in every national election since 2000. His research indicates a demographic shift. "There are two parts of this generation,“ Della Volpe said. "One grew up post 9-11, during Iraq, during George W. Bush, and were the foundation for Obama’s first election. The other part, the Ôpost-Obama,’ came of age during the recession and polarization in Washington, and have a more jaded view toward politics, and are more open-minded to new ideas.“

Looking toward 2016, Della Volpe said he thinks young voters want to have a real conversation or debate about several topics: the role of government, how to restore faith in Washington, and the best pathways to improving domestic economic policy and foreign relations. Della Volpe said millennials are definitely concerned about income inequality. "I don’t know if they as a generation have a predefined set of policy ideals that will solve that issue,“ he said, "but I think they’re open to a debate about that.“

Della Volpe said he hopes this will be the first time the youth vote is recognized as one of the most important voting blocs in America. This reminded me of something Bush said at CPAC, back in February, about "conservatives that haven’t been asked,“ who aren’t sure which side they’re on.

Bush said, "They don’t know they’re conservative. If we share our enthusiasm, and love for our country, and belief in our philosophy, we will be able to get the Latinos and young people you need to get 50.“

I asked Della Volpe whether a Republican who didn’t pose a threat to social issues would increase the contest for the millennial swing vote. Della Volpe said definitely. "Remember, Republicans don’t need to win the youth vote outright, they just need to lose it less than they did in 2008 and 2012.“

In the last two presidential elections, the Republican candidate got roughly 30 percent of the youth vote. In 2004, millennials were the only cohort John Kerry won, with 55 percent–Della Volpe is trying to determine how close Republicans can get to that number in 2016, and whether Democrats will be able to hit 60-or-so percent.

"It would be fair to call 54 percent a tossup,“ Della Volpe said, "as long as there’s not some social issue that would be an immediate disqualification.“

In trying to avoid that scenario, Bush has caused a lot of controversy–but mainly among the far-right set, who he’s sure will understand in the end. Bush is trying to be tactful, to save face with the GOP base, which he’ll need as much as the swing. But the base needs Bush to be definitely-a-Republican, and this doesn’t help with millennials. And here we have a textbook "pickle.“

Bush hopes to get out of it with a clever ruse. He spun the web at CPAC, during a live, on-stage interview with Sean Hannity–the conservative advocate FOX News anchor. This was Bush’s chance to appease Republicans while appealing to up-for-grab millennials. Hannity went down the line: Immigration Reform. Common Core. Marijuana. Same-Sex Marriage. Sanctity of Life–all issues drawing concern among the right over Bush as president.

Bush quickly took control of the interview and swatted each charge away. Bush said he thinks marijuana legalization is a bad idea, but that states should have the right to do it. Bush also said he’s pro-life. To get there, Hannity asked whether Bush stands by his 2005 decision to, as then-governor of Florida, challenge the U.S. Supreme Court ordered the removal of Terri Schiavo’s feeding tube, which had kept the brain dead Florida woman alive for 15 years. (Schiavo hadn’t made a living will; her parents wanted to take care of her; Schiavo’s husband asserted she had told him not to let her live like that; in the end, the tube was removed.) Critics say Bush was despotic; pro-lifers think he was heroic. At CPAC, Bush said he stands by the decision. "I’m pro-life,“ Bush said, and the audience cheered. "By the way,“ he added, "I stayed within the law–“

The clapping continued and Bush explained himself; this was his big wink at the youth. The Law is Bush’s big loophole for combining millennials with the GOP base. And more specifically: the rule of law.

Bush’s act is a tightrope dance that boils down to holy majority rule, over which he has no control. The rule of law allows Bush to be a Republican who doesn’t pose a threat to social rights already guaranteed by state constitutions. And Bush is especially safe where there is a national majority, such as with Common Core, which conservatives hate but most states have adopted.

For the same reason, Bush can insist on public support for legally married gay couples and then assert on stage at CPAC that he "believes in traditional marriage.“ Bush is Catholic, so his stance here isn’t surprising–but same-sex marriage is legal in 35 states, so majority rules, and Bush abides. Bush mentions the law in every YouTube speech I’ve seen. It could win him the presidency but might sink him in the red-meat primaries. To make it work, Bush will need to convince voters that he holds democracy above all else–and especially his own personal convictions, which would otherwise be private, if not for the public nature of his life.

The Rule Of Law . . .

Hannity did a Bill Clinton impression. Bush smiled and took a few obvious steps to his left. Bush said, "I’m gonna get a little bit over here.“ Everyone laughed, but Bush made clear he wasn’t in on the joke. It was like when a drunken old person says something offensive too loud in public, and at the worst possible moment. Bush managed it and walked back over. Suddenly Bush was like King Kong standing with Hannity. It wasn’t a matter of height, it was reach: stretching out wide from his middle, Bush extended far in both directions. Hannity narrowed beside him. If Bush had given Hannity a bear hug, the former Florida governor could have reached all the way back around, so that his fingertips met at his own spine. Bush knows Hannity could feel safe in there if he would relax.

Jeb Bush and Right to Rise Pac did not respond to comment for this piece.