Race Analysis: Congress: District 16

In the U.S. Congressional District 16 race, incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan faces a grassroots challenge from progressive Democrat Jan Schneider in a rematch from the 2016 race.

Buchanan was first elected in a wide-open 2006 race that followed incumbent Republican Kathleen Harris giving up the seat to unsuccessfully challenge Senator Bill Nelson. After winning one of the closest Congressional races in Florida history, Buchanan has easily held onto the seat in seven straight elections that have failed to see him seriously challenged.

Buchanan has largely voted lock-step with the Republican Party, even on controversial partisan issues, although he’s been willing to break with Republicans on issues that are important to his district, such as offshore drilling and social security. Buchanan has also been willing to work with Democrats for the sake of such issues, including legislation aimed at the opioid crisis.

Buchanan is the only Republican member from Florida on the House Ways and Means Committee, which has jurisdiction over tax policy, international trade, health care, and Social Security, giving him a sizable amount of influence and legislative leverage. With a net worth of $157.2 million, he is currently ranked as the 6th-wealthiest member of Congress and received over $2.3 million in forgiven PPP loans.

Schneider is a graduate of Yale Law School and also has a Ph.D. in political science from Yale. As an undergrad, she graduated summa cum laude from Brown University and also earned a Master's degree in International Relations. Schneider has been something of a perennial candidate with five unsuccessful runs for Congress under her belt, usually competing against candidates with much larger campaign war chests, as she will be again in this race.

In the wake of the SCOTUS overturn of Roe v. Wade, Schneider has vocally highlighted the differences between her ardent support of a woman's right to control her reproductive health and Buchanan’s strident opposition to such rights. Schneider has also pointed out that Buchanan has voted for budgets that would have drastically altered Medicaid, turning it into something of a private sector voucher.

This race will see an extremely well-financed incumbent Republican up against a grassroots Democratic challenger in what has only become a more reliably red district in the time since Buchanan initially won the seat. In other words, Schneider has her work cut out for her if she is to make the race competitive.