Race Analysis: Manatee County Commission District 2

In the Manatee County Commission District 2 race, first-term incumbent Democrat Reggie Bellamy faces a challenge from Republican Amanda Ballard.

District 2 was created in 1990 as part of a settlement with the NAACP over a lack of districts in which minority representation was likely or even possible. Since that time, it has only been held by Democrats (all but one of whom have been African American), while also being the only seat on the board a Democrat has held.

As such, the race has historically been won in the primary, and general election competition has been either nominal or absent. However, when the district was redrawn following the 2020 census, it was done in a manner that made it more competitive for the GOP, and Ballard is the first Republican who will be making what is likely to be a competitive run at the seat.

Bellamy spent the first half of his freshman term in a somewhat quiet posture, taking the time to learn the job and better understand the way county government and its many departments function, which demonstrated a level of self-awareness and humility that is not common among elected officials.

Bellamy seemed to find his voice in late 2020 when the November election brought forth a new board majority that immediately set about doing the exact opposite, including moving to fire the sitting county administrator at the very first meeting after the board was seated.

In some of the most notable votes, Bellamy was often on the losing side of a 4-3 split, joining moderate Republicans Misty Servia and Carol Whitmore. This includes the losing vote to keep then-county administrator Cheri Coryea, the vote to remove Commissioner Vanessa Baugh as chair following Vaccinegate, and the vote not to renew the contract of Scott Hopes, the current county administrator.

Bellamy, an Army veteran who graduated from Bethune Cookman University, comes from a family that has multi-generational roots in Manatee County. He has deep ties to the district and a solid understanding of its many needs. That said, he’s had limited success in addressing them.

Ballard is a local attorney specializing in child welfare and foster care. She grew up in South Carolina and earned a BA in Political Science from the College of Charleston. Ballard went on to earn her Juris Doctor degree from the University of South Carolina School of Law, where she met her husband. After law school, the couple moved to Bradenton and started a family.

Ballard is currently a senior attorney with Children’s Legal Services. She also serves as a precinct committeewoman for the Manatee Republican Executive Committee. She is a board member of Feeding Empty Little Tummies (FELT) and volunteers with the Junior League of Manatee County.

This is the only BOCC race that will be contested in November and Ballard has been endorsed by every other commissioner who will be on the next board, including incumbents Baugh, Kevin Van Ostenbridge, James Satcher, and George Kruse, as well as incoming commissioners Mike Rahn and Jason Bearden.

As of the last reporting deadline, Bellamy had raised just under $100,000, far more than any previous District 2 candidate, most of which has come from development interests and large landowners. On growth issues, Bellamy has been a solid vote for both interests, voting in favor of nearly every controversial rezone, as well as efforts to push development beyond the future development area boundary.

Despite being supported by virtually everyone in the pro-development crowd, Ballard has raised far less, with just under $38,000 as of the most recent reporting deadline, suggesting that developers may remain lukewarm on whether or not a Republican can win the seat. However, Ballard has received support from Floridians United for a Sustainable Economy, a pro-development PAC, and it remains to be seen whether it or other developer-backed PACs will aid her candidacy with attack ads as Election Day gets closer.

When it comes to votes to give developers rights to increased density, lower impact fees, and other matters that pad their bottom line, it is unlikely that there will be a noticeable difference between the two candidates, which is unfortunate, since developers already have near complete control over the board.

For his part, Bellamy was at least willing to buck developers on matters that weren’t directly related to development such as when they successfully sought to change county administrators or in protecting other pro-development commissioners like Baugh when they made poor ethical decisions.

When it comes to other district matters, particularly ones that directly affect District 2, Bellamy has proven himself to be a representative who listens with empathy to his constituents and his deep ties to the community he serves would give him a clear edge. Despite being a Democrat, he’s very much avoided the partisan bickering and commentary on hot-button national issues that have consistently polluted the board.

The same cannot be said for Ballard, who has essentially run the same playbook as the Republicans who’ve supported her. In the campaign statement on the first page of her website, Ballard wrote, "It’s freedom that empowers families, not bureaucrats sitting in an ivory tower looking over bloated budgets," said Ballard in a statement on her campaign website. "Today, the woke left is trying to replace parents with public school administrators, handcuff cops instead of criminals, and systematically redistribute wealth through higher taxes. My opponent has done nothing to slow them down. I am running to change that.“

It’s hard to make an argument that there’s not already more than enough representation for such views on this board and that having even more of it would not further distract the inexperienced board (if Ballard were elected, six of its seven members would have between zero and two years experience) from its much more important work on local issues.

Neither Ballard nor Bellamy responded to TBT’s invitation to be a guest on our podcast.