Race Analysis: United States Senate

The 2022 race for Florida’s Senate seat features incumbent Marco Rubio being challenged by Orlando-area Congresswoman Val Demings.

Demings is a former Orlando Police Chief who has morphed into a fairly run-of-the-mill establishment Democrat. She’s as politically moderate as you would expect from someone who comes from inner-city law enforcement (with the equally expected LEO caveat of supporting reasonable gun reform) and has voted fairly consistently with the corporate wing of the Dems.

Demings has been vocally pro-choice and is clearly hinging most of her chances on voter backlash to the SCOTUS overturn of Roe v. Wade to drive turnout and swing moderates who might otherwise pull the lever for Rubio. This is a big gamble but one that’s being taken by the party from the top down. If elected, Demings would continue to be a reliable establishment vote, supporting President Biden's objectives and doing little to rock the boat or otherwise distinguish herself from the DNC platform, at large.

Rubio has largely recycled tired attacks from previous campaigns and stuck to his M.O. of tying his opponent to the hot-buttoned issues that polling shows to be most effective in agitating Republican voters into action. This year, that means lots of talk about inflation, border security, and rising crime rates.

If re-elected, expect more of the same from Rubio, as well. That would include looking out for Marco Rubio, above all else, while trying desperately to gain television appearances and newspaper quotes via predictable hot takes on whatever issue is dominating the news cycle each day (he’s legendary among the press for sending out a mountain of empty "statements" via email each week).

Demings was impressive when the two candidates recently met for their first and only debate on Tuesday in Lake Worth, which you can watch here. She was confident, assertive, and willing to go on the attack with fire and brimstone. Rubio attempted to hit back with equal vigor, though sometimes the affair called to mind shades of his caning at the hands of Donald Trump in 2016.

That was a Republican debate, however, and this one is unlikely to have the same effect on GOP voters when the only option is to jump ship and vote for Demings. Demings has managed considerable support from national Democrats who see one of very few potential Senate seats they can flip in order to offset some that they are almost certain to lose, but it would seem that she would need DeSantis’s gubernatorial campaign to crater before that could translate to an upset victory. All in all, I expect her to largely mirror whatever Charlie Crist's performance amounts to.