Jolly and Demings lead Democratic field in Florida Governor's race

Following two unexpected victories in Florida legislative special elections last week, state Democrats are pointing to the wins as early signs of what may lie ahead for a party that has consistently struggled to build momentum across the state in recent years.

The Republican to Democratic flips of House District 87 and Senate District 14—won by Democrats Emily Gregory and Brian Nathan, respectively—have quickly become a talking point for Democratic candidates who argue the 2026 governor’s race may be more competitive than previously assumed, despite Republicans retaining significant fundraising advantages.

With less than four months remaining until the August primary, two candidates are emerging from the crowded gubernatorial field as the Democratic primary frontrunners: former Republican U.S. Representative David Jolly and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings.

Jolly is a former congressman from the Tampa Bay area who was elected to serve Florida’s 13th Congressional District during a special election in 2014. He was reelected to serve a full term in 2014, but lost his bid to serve a second full term in 2016. His congressional service ended in 2017.

In the years following his time in office, Jolly became an outspoken critic of President Donald Trump, which has contributed to his relatively high name recognition, given his national profile as a political commentator.

He left the Republican Party in 2018, opting for a Non-Party Affiliation (NPA) registration. In April 2025, Jolly announced he had officially joined the Democratic Party, and in June announced his intention to run as a Democrat in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race. Jolly’s candidacy was framed as that of a centrist and/or moderate who would offer representation for all Floridians, not only Florida Democrats but also independents and disaffected Republicans.

Demings' resume as the current mayor of Orange County includes decades of public service in Central Florida. He was first sworn in as the county’s mayor in 2018, but his earlier career includes serving as Orlando’s police chief (1989) and Orange County sheriff (2008). In each of these roles, he was the first Black American to hold the position.

The Democratic mayor was reelected to serve as Orange County Mayor in 2022, where he oversees more than 8,000 employees and a $7 billion budget as the chief executive for a county government that serves over 1.5 million residents. 

Demings officially announced his entrance into the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race in late 2025, framing his candidacy around his past public service and leadership experience. His campaign is focused on a range of issues impacting Floridians, including affordable housing and healthcare, public safety, protecting Florida’s environment, and local home rule.

The same year Demings was elected to his second term as mayor, his wife, former Congresswoman Val Demings—who had served three terms representing Florida’s 10th congressional district—launched a bid for the U.S. Senate against Marco Rubio. On primary night, Jerry Demings secured his reelection as mayor with over 60% of the vote in the nonpartisan race, while Val Demings won the Democratic primary and became the party’s nominee to challenge Rubio in the general election. In the end, while Jerry won his second term, Val lost her bid to the incumbent senator, Rubio.

Forecasts and fundraising 

Early polling shows a competitive Democratic primary with Jolly holding a non-insurmountable lead over Demings.

In January, Jolly’s campaign reported raising more than $3 million as of early 2026, including over $1 million in the final quarter of 2025. In contrast, Demings’ campaign reported raising approximately $330,000, significantly less than Jolly's. Demings entered the race several months after Jolly, which may have played a partial role in early fundraising reports.

Despite early backing, both Democrats fell jaw-droppingly behind Republican primary frontrunner Byron Donalds, whose campaign reportedly raised $45 million over the course of 2025.

Besides the staggering disparities in campaign fundraising between the top Democratic and Republican primary candidates, polling also appears to show both Democratic frontrunners coming in short, should either make it to a face-off with Republican frontrunner Byron Donalds in the November general election.

A University of North Florida poll conducted in early March found Donalds leading Jolly 42% to 36%, and Donalds leading Demings 43% to 36%. 

Though 13 candidates are vying for the Democratic primary for governor, the race appears to be coming down to a choice between a former Republican congressman who hopes to offer bipartisan appeal (Jolly) and a longtime public servant with both executive and local leadership experience (Demings).

So far, early polling has shown Jolly holding a slight edge over Demings, but with so many voters still undecided, the primary victor is anything but a certainty—and whichever Democratic candidate wins the primary will likely head into the general election with a significantly smaller campaign war chest than their Republican counterpart.